***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2013.-17.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 9999.0 0.0 9.0 66.3 50.4 40.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 4.2 6.5 8.9 66.9 44.6 39.5 3.4 9.7 16.8 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 4.6 12.3 10.0 73.6 52.3 41.2 5.7 10.8 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 4.5 10.1 9.9 67.9 50.6 38.2 5.1 9.8 18.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 5.7 12.5 10.6 74.7 52.3 40.9 5.5 11.6 20.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 5.9 14.6 11.7 78.2 55.2 42.6 4.3 12.8 19.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 4.5 5.5 8.5 63.6 44.8 38.6 4.2 9.7 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 9.6 17.3 11.4 70.0 48.5 41.5 10.2 18.4 23.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 5.4 12.5 11.2 77.5 52.1 42.1 3.7 11.6 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 6.1 12.0 11.9 75.8 50.1 42.7 6.1 11.9 20.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 5.8 11.5 10.3 76.5 52.8 42.6 6.3 11.1 18.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 5.6 12.6 10.2 71.9 52.4 42.0 3.4 11.2 26.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 5.1 11.4 10.8 74.0 54.7 41.9 7.2 10.1 20.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 18.9 16.3 12.8 77.6 51.2 42.8 6.6 15.6 22.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 2.6 5.4 9.7 62.2 48.3 35.5 3.5 7.3 20.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 5.1 14.0 10.4 74.7 54.5 41.9 5.6 9.4 19.7 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 4.6 8.9 8.4 63.9 46.4 37.4 4.8 9.5 14.1 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 5.3 9.1 13.2 73.0 48.1 41.5 6.3 10.1 22.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 6.0 8.7 9.5 70.8 46.6 40.9 3.8 11.9 18.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 8.0 10.8 14.0 59.6 43.2 37.1 7.7 16.4 25.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 5.0 12.6 10.4 75.5 54.5 42.1 4.2 10.0 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 5.0 8.7 9.3 68.0 47.4 39.9 2.5 9.6 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 5.0 9.9 10.6 75.9 50.0 42.3 5.2 9.9 19.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 15.2 10.7 12.3 77.1 48.3 42.6 5.1 12.3 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 4.0 7.5 10.3 68.2 49.3 40.0 3.1 7.8 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 5.2 12.3 9.7 61.7 46.8 37.0 10.5 13.8 20.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 3.5 7.1 9.7 65.8 47.1 39.7 4.5 8.3 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 3.2 7.6 9.9 68.0 51.4 38.0 3.6 7.4 19.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 8.4 15.2 14.0 68.2 45.6 39.8 12.1 16.5 29.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 4.5 7.0 9.0 67.0 44.9 39.7 4.4 11.0 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------