***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2013.-10.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 9999.0 0.0 6.9 52.5 35.9 33.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 2.7 5.1 7.6 60.2 38.9 35.8 3.5 6.9 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 3.2 3.2 6.7 48.9 30.8 31.0 3.8 9.9 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 2.1 1.6 6.9 42.1 29.2 27.5 1.6 5.8 17.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 3.1 2.6 7.7 46.9 34.1 30.8 2.2 8.1 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 2.5 5.5 9.3 58.5 46.9 37.3 1.3 6.9 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 3.6 5.2 8.0 64.0 40.9 38.5 2.3 8.6 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 4.0 6.3 9.3 53.1 36.5 34.1 5.8 10.2 25.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 2.3 1.6 7.4 46.3 34.9 30.7 1.3 6.9 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 4.0 2.9 9.1 52.3 36.8 33.2 2.0 11.0 17.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 3.0 1.6 7.4 45.9 33.9 32.1 1.4 8.9 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 2.8 3.7 7.8 48.6 36.6 33.7 3.4 8.3 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 3.7 3.9 8.3 51.4 39.0 34.5 3.0 10.9 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 4.9 3.9 8.9 55.0 31.3 32.3 4.9 12.4 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 1.3 0.9 6.7 41.0 32.1 28.4 1.0 4.1 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 2.8 3.4 7.6 48.1 37.3 33.7 2.1 8.0 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 3.1 3.9 8.6 67.0 42.6 38.5 2.7 7.7 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 4.8 6.2 10.7 59.8 39.4 36.3 4.0 11.3 18.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 2.8 3.5 7.3 56.0 34.8 32.8 2.5 8.5 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 4.2 7.9 13.9 63.8 41.4 38.2 6.5 9.3 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 2.8 2.0 6.8 45.5 32.4 30.6 2.1 7.8 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 2.9 3.8 8.6 61.2 37.4 35.1 2.5 8.5 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 75 25 0 100 2.4 2.0 7.2 51.5 29.3 29.9 2.2 8.9 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 3.7 4.5 8.7 54.8 35.8 33.8 4.1 9.6 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 2.1 2.1 7.5 49.3 35.6 32.0 1.5 5.8 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 2.0 3.4 7.9 48.1 37.5 33.1 2.2 5.5 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 3.5 4.9 7.6 54.4 36.6 34.4 4.6 8.9 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 1.0 0.8 6.7 41.8 31.8 28.3 0.9 3.0 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 7.5 15.0 11.8 62.0 40.0 36.7 6.9 19.3 25.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 2.9 2.4 7.2 56.5 35.6 34.4 1.9 7.9 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------