***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2013.-01.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 10.1 0.8 65.6 59.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 10.3 10.7 10.1 1.0 66.9 62.1 7.7 9.8 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.7 10.4 0.9 66.4 60.9 8.6 11.3 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 5.8 5.7 8.5 1.2 72.0 63.6 3.2 4.5 5.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.1 12.1 9.1 1.0 68.7 60.3 9.0 10.6 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 8.2 11.0 8.0 0.7 62.4 56.1 9.1 9.8 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 10.1 10.5 9.9 0.9 65.4 61.1 7.3 9.6 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 3.8 4.1 8.2 0.8 63.0 57.9 2.3 3.2 4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 11.9 12.3 9.7 0.9 66.4 59.4 8.7 11.4 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 11.0 11.8 8.9 0.8 63.6 57.7 8.5 10.5 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.5 12.3 9.0 0.9 65.2 58.7 9.1 10.9 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 11.2 12.0 8.8 0.8 63.7 58.1 9.4 10.7 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 8.7 12.3 8.5 0.7 60.0 55.6 10.0 10.7 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.0 12.4 9.9 0.9 63.4 59.3 9.2 11.3 12.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 10.2 10.8 9.1 1.4 76.6 67.3 8.0 8.9 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 11.8 12.9 8.7 0.8 64.6 57.9 10.3 11.3 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 9.9 10.2 9.8 1.0 66.8 62.6 7.2 9.5 10.1 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 7.7 10.5 8.6 0.7 60.9 56.4 7.5 9.3 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.7 11.1 10.3 1.0 67.7 62.2 7.8 10.2 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 5.7 8.5 6.8 0.7 59.1 56.3 6.6 7.9 8.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.4 11.9 10.1 0.9 65.9 59.8 8.7 10.9 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 11.3 11.0 10.0 1.1 69.6 63.5 7.7 9.9 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 10.9 11.1 10.5 1.0 67.2 61.7 8.0 10.5 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.4 12.5 9.8 0.9 64.0 58.4 9.4 12.0 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.2 10.9 8.9 0.9 65.4 59.6 8.2 9.8 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 8.6 11.2 8.3 0.8 63.2 58.3 9.2 10.5 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 11.1 11.6 9.5 0.7 62.4 58.3 9.0 10.7 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 10.6 11.1 8.9 1.3 72.9 64.5 8.3 9.4 10.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 5.5 8.0 7.9 0.7 59.5 56.1 5.7 7.5 8.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 10.3 10.7 10.2 0.9 66.5 61.4 7.8 9.8 10.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------