***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2013.-24.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 0.0 8.2 -0.3 45.1 47.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 9.2 8.4 8.3 0.0 47.7 50.1 6.8 8.6 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 10.9 9.8 8.4 -0.2 46.8 48.6 7.2 10.1 11.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 0.1 2.9 6.3 -0.5 43.1 46.1 1.2 3.3 5.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 6.0 8.7 6.8 -0.5 43.8 45.4 7.6 9.3 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 4.7 7.2 5.7 -1.0 37.4 42.1 6.8 8.2 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 9.1 8.2 8.1 0.0 46.0 49.7 6.2 8.4 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 0.4 1.1 6.0 -0.7 40.2 43.8 0.6 3.0 4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 6.9 10.1 7.5 -0.5 45.4 46.0 7.9 10.3 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 6.4 9.2 6.7 -0.6 42.3 44.4 7.6 9.4 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 5.9 9.1 6.6 -0.6 41.6 44.3 8.4 9.8 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 6.5 8.7 6.5 -0.7 40.3 44.0 7.8 9.5 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 5.7 8.0 6.1 -0.9 36.7 42.7 7.4 9.2 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 11.7 9.8 7.9 -0.3 44.2 47.4 7.1 11.1 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 8.6 7.4 6.6 -0.3 43.1 47.5 5.5 7.6 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 6.3 8.8 6.3 -0.7 41.0 43.9 8.5 10.0 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 8.7 8.2 8.1 0.2 49.0 51.1 6.4 8.2 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 5.2 6.9 6.4 -0.7 41.2 43.8 5.1 7.7 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 9.5 8.9 8.5 0.0 47.5 50.0 6.7 8.9 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 3.4 3.9 4.5 -0.9 38.6 42.5 3.1 6.1 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 6.5 9.4 7.9 -0.4 45.4 46.8 7.7 9.6 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 9.3 8.8 8.3 0.2 49.6 50.8 6.3 8.9 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 9.4 8.6 8.6 0.0 46.4 49.5 6.3 8.8 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.5 9.9 7.7 -0.4 44.0 46.3 7.6 10.7 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 6.0 7.8 6.7 -0.5 43.9 45.6 6.8 8.2 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 5.9 7.0 6.0 -0.8 35.7 43.3 6.7 8.9 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 6.5 8.7 7.4 -0.4 44.4 46.0 7.7 8.9 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 6.0 8.6 6.6 -0.4 43.9 46.5 5.6 9.0 10.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 3.2 4.7 5.6 -0.8 40.2 43.4 3.6 5.8 8.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 9.2 8.3 8.3 -0.1 46.6 49.3 6.7 8.5 10.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------