***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2013.-17.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 10.6 0.8 53.9 57.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 10.8 10.3 10.7 1.2 57.9 61.4 6.5 10.0 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 12.4 12.0 10.9 1.1 55.9 59.6 7.8 11.6 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 8.1 6.5 9.2 1.2 58.6 61.3 4.1 6.0 6.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 13.7 12.3 9.5 1.0 58.8 58.7 10.4 11.7 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 13.2 11.9 8.5 0.7 54.0 56.3 10.2 11.4 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 10.5 10.4 10.5 1.0 56.0 60.1 6.9 9.8 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 5.7 4.9 8.9 1.1 56.9 59.1 3.1 4.4 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 14.2 12.7 10.1 1.0 56.3 58.2 9.6 12.0 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 13.4 11.6 9.4 1.0 54.5 58.3 9.7 11.4 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 9.2 12.2 9.4 1.0 55.4 57.8 10.9 11.7 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 9.2 12.1 9.3 1.0 55.5 58.0 10.3 11.8 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 13.5 12.0 8.9 0.7 51.1 56.1 10.8 11.9 13.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 15.0 12.7 10.5 1.2 55.4 60.4 8.5 11.9 13.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 10.1 10.0 9.6 1.6 67.4 64.8 7.6 8.9 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 14.1 12.7 9.2 0.9 54.0 57.2 11.7 12.0 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 11.6 10.0 10.5 1.2 61.2 62.2 6.7 9.7 11.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 13.0 11.0 9.1 1.0 52.0 58.3 8.2 10.9 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 13.2 11.8 10.9 1.2 59.2 61.7 6.8 10.9 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 10.8 9.2 7.5 1.1 53.6 59.8 7.4 9.0 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 12.6 12.1 10.5 0.9 56.6 58.1 8.8 11.7 13.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 12.8 11.8 10.7 1.4 65.1 63.3 6.8 10.4 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 13.1 11.4 11.1 1.3 58.0 61.5 7.0 10.7 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 15.1 13.1 10.3 1.1 54.2 59.2 9.1 12.6 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 11.0 10.4 9.4 0.9 56.9 58.8 8.5 10.2 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 12.8 12.0 8.9 0.9 57.2 57.7 9.3 11.5 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 12.0 11.4 10.0 0.8 53.6 57.2 8.4 11.2 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 11.4 9.9 9.5 1.4 61.9 61.9 8.7 9.5 10.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 10.0 8.2 8.5 1.1 51.9 59.0 6.9 8.2 9.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 10.9 10.9 10.8 1.1 56.3 60.2 7.1 10.1 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------