***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2013.-10.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 9999.0 0.0 14.7 2.4 74.9 73.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 13.5 13.8 14.3 2.1 72.8 70.8 11.2 11.9 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 14.6 15.2 14.9 2.4 74.9 72.2 11.1 13.0 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 19 81 100 8.6 9.9 13.3 3.7 86.9 82.6 4.7 5.9 7.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 14.9 16.3 14.1 3.1 78.9 76.3 10.8 12.7 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 14.6 15.3 12.9 3.1 75.5 74.5 10.3 12.4 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 13.9 13.4 14.1 2.0 70.1 70.6 10.6 11.8 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 7.1 7.8 12.9 2.8 73.8 72.0 3.8 5.6 7.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 15.5 15.8 14.8 2.9 76.6 74.0 11.7 13.0 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 14.1 14.7 13.6 2.7 71.4 70.6 11.4 12.4 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 15.6 16.6 14.0 2.9 77.5 73.6 11.2 12.8 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 14.8 15.3 13.5 2.9 76.4 74.2 11.0 12.2 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 15.1 15.0 13.7 2.8 70.6 71.9 10.6 12.4 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 13.6 14.8 14.4 2.1 63.8 65.4 11.2 13.1 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 12 88 100 13.0 14.6 14.7 3.9 91.2 86.6 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 16.0 15.9 13.8 3.0 75.7 74.5 11.2 13.6 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 13.0 12.9 13.7 1.9 70.8 69.5 10.3 11.6 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 13.4 12.9 13.1 2.3 64.9 66.3 10.1 10.8 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 14.1 14.0 14.5 2.2 71.9 70.8 11.1 12.3 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 12.3 11.5 11.4 2.5 67.7 68.8 8.1 10.2 11.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 15.1 15.0 15.0 2.7 75.4 73.6 11.2 12.9 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 13.7 14.0 13.9 1.9 71.1 69.3 10.5 12.3 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 14.1 14.2 14.7 2.2 68.4 70.1 10.8 12.6 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 15.2 15.0 14.3 2.3 65.9 66.9 12.0 13.6 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 14.1 14.8 13.8 2.8 78.2 75.9 10.1 12.4 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 14.7 16.3 13.4 3.3 83.9 78.9 10.4 12.5 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 14.9 15.0 14.2 2.4 73.6 72.6 10.8 12.7 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 13.5 14.6 14.1 3.8 87.2 83.1 10.5 12.1 13.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 11.6 11.3 12.5 2.3 64.6 65.8 7.1 9.0 11.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 13.7 13.8 14.6 2.2 73.3 71.7 10.9 12.2 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------