***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2013.-01.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 9999.0 0.0 4.0 0.5 56.7 55.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 2.3 2.9 3.7 0.7 59.9 58.1 0.9 1.9 3.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 4.0 4.3 3.8 0.6 57.0 57.8 2.4 3.7 5.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 -1.1 -0.3 1.9 0.9 65.8 62.3 -2.7 -1.7 -0.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 1.8 1.7 2.2 0.8 61.7 58.8 0.9 1.5 2.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 1.3 1.5 0.5 0.7 60.1 57.7 -0.1 1.0 1.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 2.2 2.8 3.7 0.6 59.7 57.9 0.7 1.9 3.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 -2.8 -2.9 1.0 0.5 54.8 55.0 -3.8 -3.2 -2.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 2.7 2.9 2.8 0.7 59.8 57.2 1.2 2.3 3.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 2.0 1.8 1.6 0.6 55.3 55.4 0.7 1.5 2.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 1.7 1.5 1.9 0.7 57.1 57.5 0.5 1.3 2.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 0.7 0.6 1.5 0.6 56.2 56.0 -0.3 0.2 1.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 1.4 1.4 1.2 0.5 54.6 55.7 0.3 1.1 2.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 2.7 3.3 2.7 0.7 56.8 57.4 1.3 2.4 3.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 2.9 2.8 2.6 1.0 66.7 64.1 0.8 1.8 2.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 2.7 2.6 1.5 0.7 59.5 58.7 1.1 2.3 3.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 2.2 2.9 3.6 0.7 63.4 59.1 0.7 1.9 3.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 0.5 0.4 1.0 0.5 52.3 53.9 -0.6 0.2 1.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 2.5 2.8 3.7 0.7 59.5 58.4 1.1 2.2 3.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 -1.6 -1.9 -0.2 0.5 52.9 53.1 -3.2 -2.0 -1.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 2.4 2.5 3.5 0.6 59.0 57.3 1.1 2.0 2.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 1.9 2.7 3.7 0.7 63.2 59.5 0.5 1.5 2.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 2.3 2.8 3.6 0.7 58.5 58.8 0.9 2.0 3.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 1.6 1.9 2.5 0.6 55.6 56.8 0.7 1.3 2.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 2.4 2.8 2.7 0.6 59.2 56.8 1.1 2.1 3.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 1.6 1.7 1.2 0.4 55.7 54.7 0.4 1.3 2.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 2.8 3.4 3.3 0.5 57.6 55.8 1.1 2.4 3.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 1.5 1.7 2.3 1.1 67.5 65.0 -0.4 0.2 1.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 51.9 53.3 -1.7 0.0 0.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 2.5 3.1 3.9 0.6 58.6 57.6 1.1 2.2 3.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------