***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2013.-01.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 0.0 1.7 0.1 50.5 49.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 1.9 1.3 1.4 0.4 51.5 52.2 -0.3 1.3 2.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 3.2 2.3 1.4 0.2 49.3 51.4 1.2 2.3 4.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 -4.0 -2.3 -0.9 -0.1 44.8 49.5 -4.1 -2.2 -1.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 -0.7 0.6 -0.5 0.0 47.3 49.9 -0.3 0.8 2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 -1.6 -0.6 -2.2 -0.4 40.3 46.1 -1.1 0.0 1.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 1.5 1.2 1.4 0.3 53.7 51.8 -0.2 0.9 2.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -3.7 -4.5 -1.5 -0.2 45.3 48.7 -5.7 -4.4 -2.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 2.2 1.6 0.3 0.1 51.4 50.6 0.3 1.5 3.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 1.6 1.1 -0.9 -0.1 48.8 49.8 -0.4 1.1 2.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 -0.9 0.1 -0.7 -0.1 46.7 49.4 -0.4 0.3 2.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 0.1 -0.9 -1.0 -0.3 45.5 48.3 -1.6 -0.9 1.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 -1.1 -0.2 -1.5 -0.4 44.1 46.9 -1.2 0.3 1.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 2.1 1.7 0.2 0.3 53.7 53.1 0.5 1.6 3.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 -0.5 0.5 -0.5 -0.1 41.7 49.9 -0.6 1.1 2.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 0.0 0.9 -1.2 -0.2 44.6 48.2 -0.1 1.3 3.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 1.0 0.5 1.4 0.5 55.5 53.0 -0.3 0.3 1.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 0.0 -0.3 -1.4 -0.1 49.3 50.6 -1.8 -0.3 0.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 1.6 1.0 1.4 0.4 51.6 52.7 -0.1 0.9 2.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 -2.6 -4.1 -2.7 -0.2 43.4 48.3 -4.9 -3.4 -1.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 -0.1 1.0 1.1 0.1 50.9 50.6 0.4 0.9 2.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 1.1 0.9 1.5 0.5 55.9 53.6 -0.5 0.5 1.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 1.4 0.9 1.3 0.4 51.9 53.1 0.1 0.8 2.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 1.3 0.8 0.0 0.1 51.2 52.0 -0.5 0.8 1.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 -0.3 0.9 0.0 -0.1 46.0 49.0 0.0 1.0 2.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 1.0 -0.2 -1.4 -0.4 43.6 46.4 -0.7 0.5 2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 -0.7 1.0 0.9 0.0 49.2 49.3 -0.1 1.0 3.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 -1.8 -0.5 -0.8 -0.1 42.9 49.8 -1.6 0.1 1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 -0.8 -1.7 -1.9 -0.1 48.6 50.1 -2.8 -1.4 0.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 1.9 1.3 1.5 0.3 50.4 51.5 0.1 1.2 2.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------