***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2013.-17.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 3.8 -0.1 45.9 48.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 2.8 2.1 3.7 0.2 48.6 51.6 0.8 2.4 4.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 5.1 4.8 3.7 0.2 48.7 51.3 2.8 4.8 5.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 0.1 0.3 1.9 0.7 59.5 55.9 -1.8 -0.6 0.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 2.8 2.8 2.1 0.5 54.7 53.0 0.8 2.5 3.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 0.0 2.2 0.6 0.4 53.4 52.4 0.1 1.9 2.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 2.3 1.7 3.6 0.1 48.0 51.3 0.9 1.8 4.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -4.7 -2.7 0.9 0.2 45.3 48.9 -3.3 -2.5 -1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 3.2 2.7 2.7 0.4 50.7 52.2 1.9 2.7 3.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 0.9 2.4 1.5 0.3 46.8 50.0 0.7 2.5 3.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 0.6 2.2 1.8 0.4 51.7 51.3 0.9 2.2 2.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 -0.4 1.2 1.4 0.1 43.9 48.3 0.6 1.3 2.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 -0.3 1.1 1.0 0.1 44.8 48.1 0.0 1.8 3.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 3.4 2.5 2.5 0.2 47.6 50.5 1.8 2.7 4.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 2.4 2.6 2.6 0.9 64.7 59.9 0.9 1.9 2.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 1.2 2.9 1.4 0.4 51.4 51.1 1.5 2.9 3.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 2.2 1.6 3.6 0.3 49.5 52.6 1.0 1.7 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 1.5 1.0 0.9 0.2 44.3 48.7 -0.2 1.3 2.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 2.8 2.2 3.7 0.3 48.4 51.8 1.1 2.3 3.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 -3.1 -2.5 -0.3 0.1 41.3 47.6 -2.8 -1.4 -0.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 2.9 2.2 3.4 0.2 49.0 51.1 1.5 2.3 4.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 2.2 1.7 3.6 0.3 49.7 52.9 1.0 1.7 3.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 2.5 2.0 3.5 0.3 48.6 52.1 1.3 2.0 3.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 2.5 2.1 2.4 0.3 47.5 51.0 0.4 2.1 3.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 3.3 2.7 2.5 0.2 48.1 51.4 1.3 2.9 3.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 0.3 1.3 1.2 0.0 45.7 46.7 0.3 1.7 2.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 3.3 2.1 3.1 -0.1 46.1 49.1 1.2 2.4 4.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 1.2 1.8 2.2 0.9 63.4 58.5 0.0 0.8 2.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 0.6 -0.2 0.5 0.2 44.1 48.5 -0.6 0.0 1.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 2.7 2.0 3.7 0.1 48.8 50.9 1.3 2.1 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------