***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2013.-10.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 9999.0 0.0 8.2 2.4 78.4 75.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 5.6 5.9 7.6 2.1 75.0 73.6 1.8 2.9 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 7.2 7.7 8.0 2.4 78.8 75.8 4.2 5.3 6.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 7 93 100 2.0 4.9 6.8 3.5 92.0 88.5 -1.0 0.3 1.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 10 90 100 5.1 6.6 7.2 3.2 85.0 83.6 1.0 2.7 4.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 5 95 100 3.9 7.3 5.1 3.3 91.1 87.7 0.7 2.6 3.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 5.4 5.3 7.6 2.2 74.5 74.0 2.1 3.0 4.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 13 87 100 0.7 2.2 5.6 3.1 84.2 82.1 -3.2 -0.9 -0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 13 87 100 6.2 7.4 7.3 2.8 84.3 81.3 2.4 3.7 4.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 14 86 100 5.7 6.7 6.2 2.9 82.6 80.7 1.9 3.2 4.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 8 92 100 5.4 7.2 6.7 3.1 85.9 83.6 1.4 2.9 4.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 9 91 100 4.2 6.2 6.2 3.2 86.3 84.0 0.6 2.1 2.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 8 92 100 4.7 7.1 6.2 3.3 87.8 85.3 1.0 2.0 3.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 6.0 6.5 6.9 2.3 76.3 74.1 2.9 3.9 5.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 7 93 100 5.7 8.3 7.6 3.3 92.6 89.0 1.5 3.0 3.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 6 94 100 6.2 8.7 6.5 3.4 89.0 86.4 2.3 3.6 4.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 5.0 5.4 7.2 2.0 74.3 72.6 1.8 3.4 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 17 83 100 3.9 4.7 5.5 2.7 79.8 77.9 0.8 1.8 2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 5.6 6.1 7.6 2.1 75.6 73.6 2.0 3.5 4.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 13 87 100 2.1 2.8 4.4 3.2 83.4 81.4 -2.1 -1.3 0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 15 85 100 5.7 6.7 8.0 2.7 83.0 80.1 1.6 3.3 4.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 4.5 5.3 7.2 1.9 76.4 72.3 1.7 2.5 3.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 5.3 5.7 7.4 2.1 75.9 73.8 2.1 3.1 4.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 16 84 100 4.9 5.4 6.7 2.5 78.4 76.2 1.9 2.9 3.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 16 84 100 6.2 7.2 7.5 2.7 82.0 79.5 1.7 3.0 4.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 12 88 100 5.1 6.7 5.9 3.1 85.8 83.4 1.5 2.6 4.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 18 82 100 6.5 7.4 7.7 2.6 79.6 76.8 1.6 3.3 4.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 4 96 100 4.3 7.3 7.4 3.8 93.8 91.1 0.3 1.2 2.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 3.3 4.5 4.9 2.8 81.1 78.6 -0.1 0.9 2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 6.1 6.5 7.8 2.2 75.5 74.3 2.1 3.3 4.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------