***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.11.2014.-30.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 25.8 28.1 30.3 66.0 31.1 32.6 28.7 46.4 56.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 28.2 24.9 32.5 73.4 33.8 36.1 24.6 44.5 54.9 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 33.2 30.4 30.7 66.1 29.9 32.1 30.5 55.8 65.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 38.8 42.5 37.5 70.6 31.7 33.7 42.8 59.4 66.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 76 24 0 100 28.3 29.9 34.0 67.3 30.4 32.3 31.0 48.6 66.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 31.9 30.3 34.9 67.7 30.6 31.7 31.3 44.5 59.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 25.8 23.7 31.8 72.4 31.8 36.1 24.0 38.1 49.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 47.5 50.1 37.8 72.0 34.3 34.4 45.1 73.4 102.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 26.1 27.9 33.2 66.7 31.7 32.4 28.6 47.6 64.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 32.3 37.7 35.4 67.6 31.1 31.9 37.8 50.7 61.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 28.6 29.0 32.7 68.3 30.4 32.6 29.6 44.5 65.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 35.0 39.6 35.0 73.7 36.4 35.8 36.3 57.3 67.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 35.0 35.4 35.0 69.5 33.4 33.2 35.3 50.0 70.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 42.0 46.1 37.9 69.4 30.6 32.9 52.8 65.8 87.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 30.8 37.2 42.2 76.3 35.5 37.0 33.3 52.8 72.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 30.0 43.7 33.7 69.3 32.2 33.1 44.2 47.6 53.9 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 27.5 31.8 33.0 75.2 34.2 37.2 29.4 38.1 45.7 30 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 36.0 47.5 39.0 68.9 30.7 32.2 49.9 59.0 74.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 32.3 30.5 32.4 71.9 34.4 35.2 28.9 49.5 63.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 47.5 45.8 51.1 74.7 34.1 35.1 45.8 74.8 86.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 75 25 0 100 26.8 33.6 31.0 64.9 30.4 31.6 36.8 45.7 59.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 29.3 32.2 34.6 74.5 31.3 35.9 32.7 43.3 62.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 31.9 38.6 32.7 69.9 34.2 34.2 36.7 50.5 57.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 32.4 32.5 35.2 67.0 29.1 31.8 38.9 60.3 67.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 75 25 0 100 24.0 29.9 33.8 65.3 28.3 31.3 33.2 40.9 52.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 33.8 39.8 39.7 77.7 39.2 37.8 33.1 47.4 67.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 72 28 0 100 27.4 31.1 32.4 65.4 28.7 31.9 32.6 46.2 54.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 28.3 29.6 39.1 73.3 33.7 35.2 29.4 49.2 63.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 57.2 70.5 42.3 70.1 30.4 32.6 74.6 97.8 110.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 25.6 22.8 31.6 70.6 31.5 34.7 23.2 39.3 53.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------