***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.11.2014.-23.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 12.8 11.5 11.4 100.6 56.8 48.0 4.6 10.6 14.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.2 12.3 11.6 103.0 61.2 50.9 4.5 8.3 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 4.9 8.9 11.1 94.7 53.5 47.4 4.9 8.6 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 18.1 16.0 11.9 90.2 59.5 49.0 5.3 13.4 22.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 6.6 13.8 11.1 87.1 54.3 47.6 5.3 12.4 19.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 18.2 13.8 9.9 76.7 48.2 45.7 5.4 14.1 27.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 4.2 10.6 11.7 102.4 60.8 50.8 3.1 8.1 14.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 19.3 14.4 11.2 86.0 50.2 46.1 7.1 14.4 29.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 4.9 11.5 11.3 86.8 56.2 47.2 2.1 10.4 18.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 14.6 10.8 11.4 84.5 51.6 45.8 5.2 10.6 20.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 17.8 15.0 10.1 84.9 53.9 47.1 4.4 12.8 21.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 5.9 14.0 9.9 86.2 52.5 46.9 3.5 13.7 18.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 7.1 17.1 9.9 82.2 50.2 45.9 6.5 16.9 25.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 9.1 17.5 12.8 90.1 51.6 46.3 7.8 17.0 30.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 16.1 16.7 12.5 94.1 64.2 50.8 2.6 8.9 19.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 5.6 13.4 9.9 82.6 51.6 46.7 7.9 13.4 22.6 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 4.6 13.5 11.4 103.3 62.5 52.0 5.7 8.8 15.3 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 6.5 13.6 12.5 84.0 50.6 44.2 6.4 12.9 19.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 5.4 14.0 11.5 100.6 58.2 50.0 6.9 10.5 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 6.8 13.0 15.3 87.6 51.5 45.2 6.4 12.6 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.8 10.9 11.1 91.9 55.5 46.7 5.5 8.5 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 6.6 14.8 11.4 98.6 59.9 50.7 6.8 11.7 21.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 4.8 11.4 11.5 97.5 54.8 48.5 5.3 9.7 17.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 6.6 14.7 11.8 86.2 50.9 45.1 2.6 14.1 23.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 11.9 10.4 12.5 96.2 52.8 46.6 3.5 10.0 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 6.6 19.3 10.7 91.3 58.1 48.3 5.9 14.6 24.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 11.2 9.8 12.1 96.9 53.5 46.7 2.6 8.1 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 14.1 16.5 11.5 87.4 61.5 49.5 2.6 10.4 16.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 9.7 22.4 13.4 83.9 52.1 44.3 8.6 17.0 33.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 4.0 10.5 11.5 100.5 59.6 49.6 4.6 7.9 14.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------