***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.11.2014.-16.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 3.5 8.1 6.2 52.0 48.4 37.5 2.2 8.1 12.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 3.9 8.1 6.4 54.3 49.0 36.6 3.2 8.6 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 3.3 6.8 6.4 53.1 47.0 37.4 3.9 8.2 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 14.0 11.3 8.0 60.8 52.6 40.4 4.5 11.0 15.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 15.1 12.8 7.2 58.6 47.1 38.8 4.5 13.2 19.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 3.3 6.2 7.5 59.6 40.9 34.7 4.8 9.0 15.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 4.1 7.8 6.2 52.9 48.4 37.0 4.6 8.5 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 8.2 15.2 7.9 59.3 48.6 38.0 9.2 15.9 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 5.4 11.2 7.1 57.5 47.0 38.0 2.8 11.8 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 5.3 9.6 7.5 57.6 48.6 37.3 4.0 11.9 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 14.8 12.5 6.9 60.3 48.6 38.9 4.3 13.1 17.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 5.4 10.5 7.3 61.8 48.9 39.3 4.1 11.4 19.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 4.2 8.5 7.3 59.5 47.6 36.6 6.2 8.8 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 5.7 8.6 7.0 49.6 42.4 34.8 5.0 13.3 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.8 8.7 9.5 66.0 52.6 40.4 1.4 8.1 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 4.8 9.4 7.1 60.6 46.7 37.1 4.0 10.1 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.2 7.1 6.8 58.2 49.0 37.0 3.6 8.5 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 3.6 6.7 8.0 55.6 43.7 35.9 4.2 8.3 16.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 4.3 7.7 6.3 52.9 47.4 36.1 3.0 9.1 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 7.7 11.0 10.7 58.3 44.8 36.1 4.6 15.0 22.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.8 7.2 6.5 54.1 44.9 37.7 2.9 10.0 18.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 3.8 8.1 7.2 58.1 48.7 36.2 2.4 9.0 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 2.8 5.4 6.1 49.9 41.5 35.5 4.2 8.2 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 4.1 10.1 7.0 52.5 41.6 35.7 4.1 11.1 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.8 5.2 6.8 50.8 46.4 36.3 2.5 8.1 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 5.1 11.6 7.7 61.9 47.8 37.7 6.6 12.1 17.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 3.0 6.1 6.5 51.0 47.2 36.5 3.4 7.1 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 3.7 8.3 8.8 66.3 51.5 40.4 2.7 7.8 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 6.4 13.7 8.5 54.9 43.4 35.2 11.0 14.9 22.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 4.8 10.3 6.3 53.2 48.8 36.9 3.1 10.7 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------