***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.11.2014.-09.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 3.3 7.3 5.0 41.7 38.6 32.2 5.9 8.7 13.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 4.0 5.8 6.3 58.3 43.1 36.4 2.2 9.2 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 3.5 4.8 5.2 45.1 35.8 31.0 3.7 9.6 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 2.6 1.8 7.3 47.5 33.5 33.3 1.7 6.2 16.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 2.3 1.8 6.3 45.2 35.0 31.2 1.4 6.8 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.8 2.3 6.9 47.0 40.8 37.4 1.0 5.8 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.4 4.0 5.9 54.6 40.1 34.5 1.2 7.7 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 4.2 6.8 8.5 60.3 44.7 38.2 3.4 9.2 25.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 1.8 1.7 5.9 46.9 36.6 32.6 1.4 5.8 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 3.9 2.5 6.8 50.0 37.1 33.1 2.2 9.7 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 3.0 2.6 6.6 48.9 40.7 34.5 1.6 7.3 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 11.5 6.4 8.2 60.4 47.5 40.5 3.4 7.8 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 2.1 3.3 7.2 48.8 39.6 35.9 2.3 4.5 18.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 6.9 10.4 7.8 59.6 41.1 36.1 7.6 14.9 19.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 6.0 2.8 8.9 54.2 48.9 39.2 1.0 2.8 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.4 3.6 7.0 49.2 41.1 36.2 0.9 7.1 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.1 7.1 6.7 61.1 43.1 37.9 1.9 9.4 14.6 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 5.1 5.3 7.7 55.2 38.7 34.1 3.4 11.0 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 4.0 5.3 6.3 58.1 43.9 36.5 2.4 9.3 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 4.4 8.0 12.1 70.6 47.2 40.6 4.5 8.9 17.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 2.1 1.5 5.3 42.8 33.6 30.9 1.4 6.2 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 4.7 7.5 7.4 65.8 44.7 38.9 1.6 12.0 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 4.0 7.2 6.4 57.0 41.3 35.8 4.5 9.3 17.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 3.8 5.3 6.7 51.9 37.1 33.0 3.6 8.8 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 1.6 1.1 5.4 39.3 31.7 28.8 1.2 5.8 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 8.3 6.6 10.5 67.2 51.2 43.1 1.5 5.8 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 2.8 3.6 5.2 40.3 35.3 30.4 2.3 8.6 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 1.0 1.5 8.0 51.1 42.9 37.3 0.9 2.3 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 8.0 17.6 8.9 60.2 40.8 35.5 7.1 19.3 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 3.3 4.5 5.8 52.8 40.7 34.1 2.0 7.4 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------