***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.11.2014.-30.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 12.1 11.4 11.0 1.2 70.2 66.5 8.8 10.6 11.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 11.6 10.8 10.9 1.2 71.1 68.1 8.1 10.2 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 12.4 12.2 11.1 1.2 70.7 66.5 9.0 11.5 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 5.2 5.3 8.3 0.7 63.8 60.7 3.4 4.8 5.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 12.2 12.1 9.3 1.0 66.6 63.9 9.1 10.9 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 11.6 11.6 8.7 1.2 69.5 65.6 9.4 10.1 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 11.4 10.9 10.8 1.2 70.9 68.0 7.7 10.0 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 4.8 4.6 8.8 1.1 65.6 64.7 2.6 3.7 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 13.1 12.5 10.2 1.1 67.7 64.7 9.2 11.7 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 12.0 12.1 9.5 1.2 67.2 65.2 9.0 10.6 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 12.5 12.4 9.3 1.1 66.0 64.7 9.4 11.2 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 11.5 12.2 9.1 1.0 65.5 63.6 9.6 11.1 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 43 57 100 12.3 12.7 9.1 1.2 68.8 64.9 10.0 11.2 12.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 13.0 13.3 10.9 1.5 72.1 69.1 9.4 11.4 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 9.3 10.3 8.5 0.6 62.3 59.5 8.2 9.0 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 12.9 13.2 9.1 1.1 68.1 64.8 10.5 11.6 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 11.0 10.5 10.7 1.3 72.1 69.3 7.8 9.6 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 10.8 11.1 9.6 1.4 70.1 67.7 7.6 9.6 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 11.8 11.4 11.1 1.3 70.9 68.3 8.3 10.6 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 9.6 9.1 8.0 1.4 69.5 68.1 6.8 8.3 9.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 12.5 12.2 10.6 1.1 68.5 65.3 9.1 11.1 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 11.4 11.6 10.9 1.4 72.3 70.1 8.3 10.1 11.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 11.9 11.6 11.3 1.3 70.5 68.5 8.5 10.7 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 13.2 13.1 10.7 1.4 70.2 67.8 9.7 11.9 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 11.1 11.0 9.6 1.1 69.1 65.5 8.4 10.1 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 11.1 11.3 8.6 0.9 64.9 62.6 9.5 10.7 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 12.2 11.9 10.5 1.2 70.8 67.1 9.2 11.0 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 10.0 10.7 8.5 0.6 63.3 59.6 8.6 9.7 10.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 9.1 9.0 9.2 1.6 72.8 69.7 5.9 7.9 8.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 11.4 10.9 11.0 1.2 71.1 67.4 8.2 10.2 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------