***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.11.2014.-30.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 5.6 8.1 7.5 -0.1 50.5 49.5 6.0 8.1 10.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 5.5 7.6 7.3 -0.1 45.3 49.2 6.3 8.0 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 6.5 9.2 7.5 -0.1 47.1 49.4 7.7 9.5 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 4.4 4.1 5.5 0.0 51.3 51.7 1.0 4.0 4.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 10.2 9.2 5.9 -0.1 46.3 50.1 8.2 9.5 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.7 7.9 5.4 0.0 47.5 51.1 7.2 8.0 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 5.2 7.1 7.1 -0.1 45.9 48.9 6.5 7.1 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 2.7 1.9 5.5 0.0 47.0 50.9 0.5 2.1 3.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 7.1 9.5 6.6 -0.1 44.9 49.2 8.2 10.2 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.2 9.1 6.1 0.0 46.8 50.1 7.3 9.5 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 10.7 9.8 5.9 0.0 47.1 50.5 8.2 9.9 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.1 5.8 0.1 46.3 50.8 8.1 9.4 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 6.3 9.3 5.6 0.1 47.7 51.3 7.7 9.5 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 6.8 9.2 7.0 0.0 45.4 50.0 7.2 9.3 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 7.8 7.5 5.7 0.0 52.0 52.7 5.7 7.0 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 10.9 9.9 5.6 0.0 47.2 51.0 8.4 10.0 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 5.0 6.9 7.1 0.0 44.3 50.1 5.6 7.2 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 5.2 7.4 6.0 0.0 46.2 50.3 4.4 7.6 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 5.7 7.9 7.4 -0.1 45.6 49.4 6.7 8.2 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 6.6 5.7 4.7 0.2 46.2 52.2 3.0 5.9 8.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 6.7 9.2 7.1 -0.1 46.9 49.4 7.9 9.5 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 5.1 7.3 7.2 0.1 44.2 50.7 6.4 7.7 8.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 5.6 7.6 7.6 0.0 46.0 49.7 6.9 8.0 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 7.2 9.8 6.9 -0.1 45.3 49.8 7.6 10.3 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 6.1 8.9 6.2 0.0 50.0 50.8 7.1 8.9 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 6.8 7.9 5.6 0.1 46.9 51.5 6.1 8.1 10.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 6.5 9.3 6.9 -0.1 50.4 49.9 7.3 9.3 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.2 7.8 5.6 0.0 50.1 51.7 6.4 7.7 9.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 6.8 5.5 5.6 0.2 46.9 51.8 3.9 5.9 8.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 5.3 7.8 7.4 -0.1 46.3 49.0 6.2 8.1 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------