***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.11.2014.-23.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 13.4 13.0 10.0 1.5 71.1 64.8 6.7 8.5 10.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 11.8 10.3 9.8 1.4 68.3 64.0 6.8 8.6 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 13.4 10.8 10.0 1.4 67.5 63.7 7.0 10.3 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 6.3 6.2 7.8 1.4 67.7 63.3 1.8 2.7 5.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 13.1 10.0 8.4 1.4 64.7 62.7 7.7 9.1 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 12.0 10.5 7.8 1.6 66.1 64.1 6.9 8.3 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 11.7 9.9 9.7 1.4 69.0 64.5 6.4 8.6 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 4.4 3.5 7.7 1.3 61.8 62.1 0.6 2.7 3.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 13.8 10.7 9.1 1.4 64.2 62.6 7.6 10.3 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 12.9 10.2 8.4 1.3 62.3 62.2 7.3 9.7 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 13.7 10.4 8.3 1.3 62.2 62.1 7.2 9.8 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 13.4 10.4 8.1 1.3 62.6 61.9 7.4 9.7 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 13.2 10.8 8.0 1.4 62.9 62.8 7.5 9.0 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 13.9 11.8 9.5 1.4 64.0 62.3 8.0 11.1 11.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 10.8 10.5 7.9 1.3 67.4 63.0 5.8 8.5 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 13.8 11.2 8.1 1.4 63.3 62.7 8.1 9.5 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 11.0 9.8 9.5 1.4 68.5 64.2 6.3 8.5 9.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 8.8 9.7 8.4 1.4 61.3 62.5 6.1 7.7 10.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 12.3 10.5 10.0 1.4 67.6 63.7 6.3 9.4 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 7.3 7.7 6.8 1.5 61.9 63.4 3.0 6.3 8.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 13.8 11.0 9.6 1.5 67.2 63.6 7.4 10.0 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 11.5 10.5 9.7 1.4 67.6 63.9 5.9 9.0 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 12.0 10.9 10.1 1.4 67.2 63.2 6.3 9.1 10.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 13.6 11.3 9.4 1.4 63.2 62.4 7.9 10.4 11.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 12.1 10.8 8.6 1.6 70.4 65.2 6.9 8.2 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 12.4 11.2 7.8 1.4 66.2 63.5 6.9 8.9 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 13.1 12.0 9.4 1.6 70.9 65.2 7.9 9.3 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 10.9 10.6 7.9 1.3 66.2 62.5 6.2 9.6 10.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 9.1 7.2 7.8 1.5 62.4 62.9 3.6 5.8 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 11.7 10.0 9.9 1.4 68.4 64.0 6.9 8.9 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------