***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.11.2014.-16.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 44 56 100 13.0 12.7 11.8 1.4 63.6 62.6 9.1 11.6 12.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 43 57 100 11.8 12.1 11.8 1.5 64.3 64.7 7.7 9.9 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 12.2 13.3 11.9 1.4 63.1 62.2 9.1 11.7 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 6.9 7.4 9.5 1.1 62.9 60.2 3.9 6.5 7.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 12.3 13.4 10.0 1.2 61.7 59.9 9.7 11.8 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 12.1 12.3 9.3 1.2 58.8 58.9 9.4 11.7 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 44 56 100 11.6 11.9 11.7 1.5 65.1 64.8 7.7 10.1 12.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 4.8 4.8 9.6 1.4 59.6 60.3 3.6 4.4 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 12.9 13.5 10.8 1.2 60.6 60.1 10.4 12.4 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 12.1 12.8 10.2 1.4 60.3 60.2 9.7 11.7 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 12.8 13.0 10.0 1.2 59.4 59.4 10.1 12.3 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 12.5 12.8 9.9 1.3 59.4 59.5 9.7 11.9 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 12.4 13.3 9.8 1.3 59.7 59.1 10.3 12.0 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 12.1 14.3 11.5 1.8 63.8 63.7 9.7 11.4 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 9.6 10.2 9.5 1.0 63.5 60.0 7.7 9.3 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 13.2 13.5 9.7 1.2 60.6 58.9 11.1 12.7 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 11.5 11.7 11.6 1.6 66.4 65.7 7.2 9.6 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 11.0 11.9 10.3 1.7 59.6 61.6 8.4 10.5 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 44 56 100 12.5 12.7 11.9 1.5 63.4 64.3 8.4 10.7 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 9.6 10.3 8.8 1.8 57.9 63.1 7.0 9.2 11.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 12.2 13.4 11.3 1.2 61.4 60.8 9.4 11.6 13.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 43 57 100 12.2 12.7 11.7 1.6 66.6 65.5 8.0 10.4 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 11.0 12.5 12.0 1.6 62.9 63.8 8.5 10.4 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 12.9 14.2 11.3 1.6 60.8 62.0 10.4 12.4 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 11.4 11.7 10.4 1.3 61.5 62.3 8.5 11.0 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 12.1 12.2 9.8 1.4 59.0 60.3 10.2 11.8 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 44 56 100 13.1 13.2 11.3 1.4 63.1 63.2 8.8 11.7 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 10.0 10.5 9.6 1.0 62.9 59.2 8.8 9.5 10.7 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 9.2 9.1 9.9 1.9 60.2 63.1 6.6 8.8 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 10.6 12.1 11.9 1.4 64.4 64.1 8.2 10.0 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------