***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.11.2014.-09.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 14.4 14.9 14.7 1.8 69.8 67.3 10.9 12.8 14.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 14.0 14.1 14.9 2.1 70.3 70.8 11.3 12.3 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 15.1 14.7 15.0 2.0 70.3 68.2 11.2 13.3 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 93 7 100 5.9 5.7 10.4 0.3 50.5 52.8 5.1 5.6 8.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 92 8 100 12.9 13.4 12.7 1.4 57.4 60.2 11.0 12.6 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 89 11 100 13.3 13.7 12.4 2.1 62.2 63.4 10.8 13.1 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 14.1 14.1 14.8 2.1 69.7 70.2 10.7 11.8 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 93 7 100 5.8 6.5 12.2 1.8 56.1 58.9 4.2 5.7 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 90 10 100 13.4 14.6 14.1 1.8 62.3 63.8 11.4 13.0 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 91 9 100 12.5 13.6 13.4 2.1 60.4 62.9 11.4 12.1 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 91 9 100 12.9 13.8 13.1 1.8 59.1 61.5 11.2 12.5 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 95 5 100 12.8 13.0 12.4 1.5 54.7 56.8 10.9 12.6 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 91 9 100 13.5 13.6 13.1 1.9 58.4 60.2 11.1 13.3 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 15.3 15.7 15.6 2.9 70.7 72.1 11.4 13.5 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 93 7 100 12.4 12.1 11.1 -0.1 48.1 49.6 11.4 12.3 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 91 9 100 13.9 14.3 13.0 1.8 59.3 61.3 11.6 13.6 15.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 13.6 13.5 14.7 2.2 70.4 72.3 10.9 11.7 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 11.7 13.0 13.8 2.7 67.8 66.8 10.1 11.2 12.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 14.1 14.4 15.1 2.2 70.6 71.4 11.1 12.3 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 91 9 100 10.7 11.0 11.6 2.3 61.5 62.1 8.8 10.5 11.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 13.0 14.3 14.5 1.8 63.7 64.3 11.2 12.5 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 14.6 15.5 14.9 2.4 75.2 74.3 10.8 12.6 13.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 14.5 14.6 15.3 2.4 70.6 71.7 11.1 12.7 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 15.5 15.2 15.1 2.7 70.0 69.3 11.5 13.8 14.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 90 10 100 12.3 13.1 13.1 1.5 61.9 62.5 10.5 12.0 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 99 1 100 13.0 12.7 11.2 0.8 47.9 49.7 11.3 13.0 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 14.7 15.0 14.3 1.9 68.5 67.2 10.8 12.9 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 92 8 100 12.5 12.4 10.8 0.2 49.9 50.7 11.4 12.4 13.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 11.4 11.9 13.4 2.9 70.7 69.0 7.1 9.6 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 14.0 14.6 15.0 2.0 70.5 69.9 10.9 12.1 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------