***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.11.2014.-30.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 3.9 3.9 5.1 1.3 67.9 68.4 1.6 2.8 3.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 3.3 3.5 4.8 1.3 72.2 69.3 1.0 2.1 3.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 5.0 5.4 4.7 1.3 70.6 68.8 2.7 3.9 5.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 -1.1 -0.4 2.0 0.9 66.2 65.0 -2.6 -1.6 -0.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 1.9 2.4 2.4 0.9 66.0 63.9 0.8 1.5 2.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 2.0 2.2 0.9 1.0 68.4 66.7 -0.3 1.2 1.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 3.2 3.4 4.8 1.3 71.0 68.3 0.9 2.0 3.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 -1.9 -1.8 1.6 1.1 69.7 66.6 -3.7 -2.9 -1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 3.5 3.6 3.1 0.8 65.5 63.2 1.2 2.2 3.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 2.9 3.3 2.1 1.0 68.0 65.3 0.8 1.6 3.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 2.7 2.9 2.2 0.9 69.1 64.4 0.6 1.4 2.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 1.8 2.2 1.9 0.9 69.5 64.7 -0.3 0.2 1.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 2.1 2.1 1.5 0.8 66.4 63.4 0.3 1.2 2.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 3.4 3.8 3.2 1.1 70.1 67.0 1.3 2.5 3.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 44 56 100 2.9 3.1 2.7 0.9 67.6 65.8 1.0 1.8 3.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 3.4 3.6 1.7 0.8 66.1 63.7 1.1 2.2 3.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 3.2 3.3 4.6 1.3 70.8 68.6 0.9 2.1 3.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.0 67.4 64.8 -0.5 0.3 1.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 3.3 3.5 4.7 1.3 72.8 69.6 1.1 2.3 3.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 -0.8 -0.8 0.5 1.2 67.7 67.4 -3.3 -1.8 -0.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 3.3 3.3 4.1 1.1 67.3 65.7 1.3 2.0 3.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 2.7 3.0 4.5 1.3 71.9 69.1 0.7 1.7 2.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 3.0 3.4 4.4 1.2 72.4 69.1 1.0 2.1 3.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 2.5 2.8 3.0 1.0 69.3 65.8 0.7 1.4 2.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 3.4 3.6 3.4 1.2 68.2 67.4 1.3 2.4 3.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 2.3 2.5 1.6 0.8 67.7 63.9 0.5 1.5 2.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 3.8 3.9 4.2 1.2 67.6 66.9 1.3 2.6 3.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 44 56 100 1.4 1.8 2.2 0.9 66.8 65.3 -0.2 0.3 1.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 67.5 65.9 -1.5 0.1 1.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 3.6 3.7 4.9 1.3 71.9 69.2 1.3 2.2 3.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------