***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.11.2014.-30.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 -0.5 0.8 2.0 0.0 50.8 50.1 -0.1 0.8 2.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 1.6 0.5 1.7 0.0 47.8 49.6 -0.3 0.9 2.9 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 1.3 2.2 1.6 0.0 50.4 50.1 1.0 2.1 5.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 -4.1 -1.6 -0.4 0.3 59.7 54.2 -4.3 -2.3 -1.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 -0.7 1.1 -0.2 0.2 54.6 52.6 -0.7 0.6 2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 -1.6 0.4 -1.2 0.7 57.2 55.7 -1.7 -0.1 1.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 1.7 0.6 1.8 0.0 47.1 49.6 -0.4 1.0 2.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 -2.8 -3.3 -0.9 0.4 54.9 53.3 -6.1 -3.4 -2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 0.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 50.0 51.1 -0.1 1.4 3.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 1.5 1.0 -0.4 0.3 53.6 52.7 -1.2 0.9 2.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 -0.7 1.1 -0.3 0.3 56.1 53.1 -1.4 0.5 1.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 0.4 56.4 52.6 -2.2 -1.0 1.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 -1.4 0.3 -0.8 0.4 55.6 52.9 -1.2 -0.2 0.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 2.2 2.3 0.4 0.2 53.8 51.5 0.1 1.7 3.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 -0.8 1.3 0.2 0.4 61.6 55.0 -0.8 1.0 1.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 -0.1 2.1 -0.6 0.4 56.4 53.8 -0.2 1.5 2.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 1.2 0.4 1.7 0.1 47.9 49.9 -0.5 0.6 2.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 -0.5 -0.3 -0.8 0.4 58.1 53.8 -1.8 -0.9 0.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 1.4 0.6 1.7 0.0 49.7 49.7 -0.2 0.6 2.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 -2.5 -2.8 -1.8 0.6 56.2 54.6 -5.2 -3.3 -1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 -0.1 0.9 1.3 0.0 50.4 50.7 -0.4 0.8 2.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 1.0 0.3 1.7 0.2 50.6 50.4 -0.5 0.3 2.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 1.4 0.9 1.4 0.0 52.5 50.1 -0.2 0.8 2.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 1.4 1.5 0.3 0.2 56.0 52.3 -0.7 1.0 1.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 -0.6 1.1 0.5 0.1 54.1 52.4 -0.4 0.9 2.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 -1.2 0.6 -0.5 0.4 55.1 52.6 -0.9 0.1 1.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 -0.7 0.7 1.3 0.0 51.4 50.6 -0.5 0.6 3.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 -2.0 1.1 -0.1 0.4 60.4 55.1 -2.0 -0.3 1.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 -0.4 -0.5 -1.2 0.6 58.6 54.9 -3.5 -1.0 0.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 1.7 0.6 1.8 0.0 48.4 49.6 -0.1 0.8 3.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------