***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.11.2014.-23.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 3.9 4.3 4.2 1.4 67.8 62.9 -0.5 1.3 4.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 3.1 3.5 3.9 1.5 71.0 64.1 -0.4 0.5 2.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 5.0 4.6 3.8 1.4 69.2 63.4 0.8 2.7 4.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 -1.8 0.2 1.5 1.4 71.3 64.5 -4.7 -2.6 -1.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 1.1 2.1 1.8 1.3 69.0 62.3 -0.4 0.3 2.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 0.5 2.8 0.4 1.3 68.0 64.0 -1.7 -0.1 2.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 3.6 3.8 3.9 1.4 70.6 63.5 -0.1 0.9 3.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -3.3 -2.3 0.8 1.1 66.5 60.3 -7.3 -4.3 -2.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 1.8 3.5 2.5 1.2 68.2 61.3 -0.1 1.1 3.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 1.1 2.4 1.4 1.1 67.1 60.5 -0.7 0.3 1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 0.9 2.3 1.5 1.2 67.4 60.9 -0.7 0.2 2.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 0.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 63.2 59.5 -1.8 0.1 1.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 1.3 1.5 0.9 1.1 59.9 60.5 -0.6 0.8 1.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 2.0 3.5 2.5 1.3 68.3 62.3 -0.3 1.2 3.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 2.1 2.8 2.0 1.4 72.3 64.9 0.3 1.8 2.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 1.8 3.1 1.1 1.2 65.2 61.5 0.1 1.3 3.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 3.4 3.6 3.8 1.5 72.2 64.1 -0.6 1.1 3.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 -0.5 0.6 1.0 1.1 64.9 60.7 -2.0 -0.9 0.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 2.7 3.4 3.8 1.5 70.2 64.2 -0.6 0.8 3.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 -1.8 -1.3 -0.2 1.2 62.9 61.8 -5.4 -4.0 -0.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 3.1 2.7 3.4 1.3 68.0 62.4 -0.4 0.5 2.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 2.6 3.3 3.7 1.5 71.8 64.3 -0.8 0.6 3.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 1.0 2.7 3.6 1.4 67.3 64.0 -0.7 0.2 2.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 1.1 2.6 2.3 1.2 66.9 61.8 -0.7 0.3 2.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 1.9 3.1 2.4 1.3 67.9 63.3 0.1 1.2 3.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 1.3 2.3 1.1 1.1 62.9 61.3 -0.9 0.9 2.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 2.3 2.9 3.3 1.3 67.3 62.3 -0.7 1.4 2.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 0.7 1.7 1.7 1.4 71.9 64.8 -1.2 0.4 1.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 0.8 -0.4 0.6 1.2 64.3 61.6 -3.7 -2.6 0.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 3.6 3.6 4.0 1.5 69.5 63.8 -0.1 1.1 3.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------