***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.11.2014.-16.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 3.3 3.9 6.0 1.5 62.1 63.8 1.9 2.8 4.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 2.9 3.7 5.8 1.6 67.4 64.7 1.2 2.5 3.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 44 56 100 5.7 5.3 5.7 1.6 67.2 65.0 3.2 4.4 5.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 1.0 0.5 3.5 1.6 67.8 67.6 -1.8 -0.4 0.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 2.3 3.2 3.7 1.5 65.2 65.2 0.7 1.9 3.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 2.4 2.5 2.3 1.7 70.7 67.8 -0.7 1.9 2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 2.6 3.3 5.7 1.5 65.2 63.7 1.5 2.1 3.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 46 54 100 -1.2 -1.0 2.8 1.6 66.9 65.9 -3.6 -1.9 -1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 2.9 3.5 4.3 1.4 63.4 63.8 1.8 2.6 3.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 2.9 3.1 3.3 1.6 66.0 64.9 0.4 2.7 3.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 2.4 3.1 3.5 1.6 66.9 65.8 0.3 2.1 2.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 1.6 2.3 3.2 1.5 65.0 65.1 -0.6 1.4 2.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 44 56 100 2.6 3.0 2.8 1.5 65.3 65.1 -0.1 1.3 3.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 45 55 100 4.2 4.1 4.5 1.7 73.0 67.1 2.0 2.9 3.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 3.1 3.2 4.0 1.7 70.7 68.8 0.7 1.9 2.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 43 57 100 3.8 4.0 3.1 1.6 67.4 66.1 0.9 3.0 3.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 2.5 3.5 5.5 1.5 63.8 63.9 1.3 2.0 3.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 1.3 2.0 3.0 1.7 67.9 65.9 -0.7 1.0 2.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 2.8 3.7 5.7 1.6 68.9 65.6 1.2 2.3 3.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 43 57 100 -0.2 -0.1 1.9 1.9 69.0 67.2 -2.8 -1.6 -0.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 2.8 3.4 5.2 1.5 63.2 64.1 1.3 2.5 3.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 2.7 3.3 5.5 1.5 66.1 64.4 0.9 2.3 3.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 44 56 100 3.5 3.8 5.5 1.7 71.2 66.9 1.5 2.0 3.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 45 55 100 2.5 2.8 4.3 1.7 69.1 66.2 1.0 1.8 2.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 3.2 3.6 4.4 1.6 64.7 66.0 0.8 2.9 3.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 2.4 2.7 2.9 1.4 62.4 63.9 -0.5 2.2 2.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 3.1 3.5 5.2 1.5 63.2 64.3 2.0 2.6 3.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 2.0 2.5 3.7 1.7 68.2 68.0 -0.3 0.5 1.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 43 57 100 1.4 1.7 2.7 1.9 69.1 66.8 -0.9 0.2 1.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 44 56 100 4.2 3.8 5.9 1.6 67.4 64.4 1.5 2.6 3.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------