***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.11.2014.-09.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 10 90 100 6.2 6.5 8.4 2.4 77.8 76.2 2.4 3.7 5.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 16 84 100 5.2 5.4 7.8 2.3 76.5 75.3 1.7 2.7 4.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 7.2 7.5 7.7 2.1 75.1 73.0 3.9 5.1 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 93 7 100 0.3 0.2 3.6 0.2 50.7 52.4 -1.6 0.1 1.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 91 9 100 2.8 3.4 4.4 0.6 56.3 56.5 1.8 2.6 4.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 91 9 100 3.0 2.7 1.9 0.3 52.4 53.3 1.2 2.7 3.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 5.4 5.9 7.8 2.3 76.3 75.0 1.9 2.8 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 90 10 100 -0.7 0.0 3.6 1.1 59.3 59.9 -3.3 -1.0 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 89 11 100 4.1 4.6 5.0 0.7 57.6 57.3 2.7 3.9 5.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 90 10 100 4.1 4.6 4.2 1.0 58.9 59.3 2.8 3.9 4.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 90 10 100 3.6 3.6 4.0 0.6 56.1 55.8 2.1 3.4 4.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 89 11 100 2.7 2.8 3.7 0.7 58.7 57.1 0.7 2.5 3.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 91 9 100 2.7 2.8 2.9 0.2 52.4 52.6 1.0 2.5 4.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 92 8 100 3.9 4.9 5.5 1.1 59.7 59.4 2.9 3.7 5.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 93 7 100 3.3 3.0 4.6 0.1 48.9 50.8 2.3 3.1 4.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 90 10 100 4.0 4.1 3.1 0.1 52.2 51.9 2.9 3.8 4.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 5.3 5.9 7.4 2.1 75.9 74.3 1.9 3.1 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 93 7 100 2.3 2.4 3.3 0.8 54.2 55.5 0.8 2.1 3.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 5.5 5.7 7.6 2.1 75.4 73.9 2.2 3.1 4.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 92 8 100 -0.2 0.1 2.1 1.1 56.6 57.8 -1.8 -0.4 0.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 4.7 4.6 6.7 1.4 68.1 66.5 2.2 3.5 4.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 4.6 5.1 7.2 1.9 75.6 72.8 1.7 2.5 4.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 4.7 5.2 7.0 1.7 70.8 69.3 2.5 3.1 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 90 10 100 3.5 4.0 5.1 1.0 59.7 59.4 2.3 3.3 4.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 5.1 5.6 6.4 1.7 71.8 69.6 2.1 3.2 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 89 11 100 3.2 3.2 3.1 0.4 54.1 53.0 1.6 2.8 4.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 5.5 6.0 7.2 2.0 74.0 72.0 1.6 3.2 5.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 92 8 100 2.1 1.6 3.7 -0.1 48.0 49.1 0.2 1.9 2.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 90 10 100 1.7 1.8 2.7 0.8 53.9 55.2 0.0 1.4 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 14 86 100 5.9 6.3 8.1 2.3 76.9 75.7 2.0 3.2 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------