***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.11.2020.-29.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 46.2 38.7 41.0 89.7 46.6 44.7 30.0 41.8 55.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 48.6 43.4 36.7 87.6 47.0 45.2 24.6 43.5 52.3 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 37.2 50.5 41.1 91.1 48.1 45.5 30.5 52.8 62.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 39.6 56.2 49.4 91.7 51.2 45.5 42.6 53.9 63.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 52.8 47.6 46.9 95.5 52.3 47.7 31.6 45.8 65.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 32.7 43.7 46.4 94.9 50.3 48.1 33.9 43.7 55.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 45.0 28.5 35.8 86.0 43.8 44.4 24.2 38.1 49.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 84.6 74.2 52.1 94.8 49.5 47.9 46.1 74.3 97.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 51.5 49.7 48.1 97.8 53.7 48.8 28.3 47.0 56.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 54.5 49.4 51.5 97.5 52.0 48.9 34.9 48.8 58.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 53.0 48.0 47.5 96.5 53.3 48.9 29.0 44.8 62.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 63.1 55.4 47.0 93.0 49.4 46.9 32.1 55.8 63.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 60.9 49.8 48.1 91.9 49.5 46.8 37.2 50.1 67.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 72.0 64.9 52.9 97.1 50.2 48.9 51.8 64.7 87.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 29.2 42.6 47.4 87.6 48.4 44.0 31.1 44.4 70.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 53.6 46.3 46.6 93.6 50.7 47.5 42.7 46.3 50.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 46.6 37.9 36.1 86.6 46.6 44.5 28.2 38.8 46.0 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 36.2 55.9 52.3 95.6 48.8 47.7 45.6 56.7 75.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 53.5 46.8 38.5 90.3 48.6 46.5 31.6 47.8 63.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 50.8 67.9 62.1 90.7 46.2 45.6 44.8 75.1 82.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 33.5 46.1 44.8 94.3 50.3 46.9 33.0 45.9 57.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 50.7 43.3 38.8 89.3 46.8 46.1 33.2 44.4 62.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 36.7 50.0 41.8 94.0 50.7 47.9 41.5 49.4 56.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 37.6 58.4 48.6 95.5 50.0 47.6 37.1 58.4 68.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 29.6 36.5 45.5 89.0 46.4 44.2 32.2 40.7 49.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 33.3 41.4 47.2 88.2 48.3 44.2 32.8 43.5 65.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 33.0 41.4 42.3 88.7 45.8 44.4 33.6 44.3 53.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 29.9 42.6 46.9 90.8 49.8 45.5 28.7 42.8 58.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 59.6 82.9 54.6 93.3 48.3 46.7 71.1 88.6 108.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 28.1 36.1 37.5 87.8 46.0 44.9 23.1 39.1 53.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------