***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.11.2020.-29.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 5.3 7.3 15.1 123.4 66.7 57.1 1.9 3.5 7.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 5.7 5.8 13.5 118.3 64.6 55.6 1.9 3.3 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 7.9 10.3 14.8 124.3 66.8 57.3 1.6 5.4 10.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 8.8 11.8 16.3 120.7 66.7 55.7 4.1 6.8 11.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 2.7 12.2 16.8 131.2 67.9 56.9 2.4 5.3 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 2.5 14.0 15.7 125.3 69.3 56.9 2.5 5.2 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 5.1 9.1 13.2 117.1 64.9 54.7 1.7 3.4 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 4.8 16.5 17.2 126.9 67.3 56.7 4.3 8.3 14.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 3.0 9.6 17.3 132.9 68.9 57.7 2.4 6.1 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 3.5 10.7 17.6 128.9 67.9 56.7 3.5 7.0 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.8 10.2 16.1 130.5 67.5 57.2 2.8 8.1 10.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 3.7 12.9 15.7 128.1 68.4 57.5 3.7 8.1 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.2 7.8 16.4 126.0 64.5 58.2 2.9 6.3 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 10.3 13.0 18.0 123.0 65.7 56.6 4.3 7.4 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 10.6 8.8 15.2 109.6 64.0 54.5 3.8 6.8 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 2.8 10.2 15.8 125.7 65.8 57.1 2.1 5.9 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 7.3 8.8 12.8 112.8 64.8 53.9 1.8 5.6 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 4.6 13.9 17.9 123.2 66.5 55.4 3.7 8.1 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 8.3 9.2 13.8 120.6 65.7 56.6 1.1 5.8 9.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 4.3 15.2 21.3 118.6 65.1 54.4 3.7 8.2 16.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 6.8 9.5 16.2 129.8 67.0 57.7 2.3 5.6 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 8.9 10.8 13.6 116.3 65.7 55.0 2.3 7.3 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 8.3 8.4 14.5 123.5 66.4 57.6 2.4 5.8 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 9.3 13.5 16.7 123.0 66.8 56.0 3.2 6.1 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 8.7 9.4 16.6 123.2 64.5 56.7 2.5 7.1 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 2.4 11.2 16.3 124.7 65.5 57.7 4.3 5.5 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.0 7.9 15.9 123.9 65.9 57.0 3.1 5.4 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.6 12.9 15.3 117.8 67.1 55.6 3.4 6.6 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 5.7 23.0 18.7 119.7 65.6 54.4 6.3 11.0 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 5.4 7.5 13.8 120.2 64.6 56.2 1.9 3.8 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------