***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2020.-22.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 16.2 14.3 14.4 117.9 66.0 55.0 6.4 11.0 14.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.9 19.2 13.3 125.7 68.9 56.9 4.4 8.8 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 13.4 13.7 14.7 118.9 65.4 55.2 7.6 9.3 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 19.4 24.9 17.3 125.9 69.0 55.6 5.7 14.6 23.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 14.7 16.7 16.9 125.6 69.8 55.1 6.2 12.5 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 17.6 27.7 17.1 128.6 69.8 55.5 3.8 13.3 25.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 16.2 14.3 12.7 121.2 68.6 56.2 4.7 9.2 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 7.0 30.2 18.2 125.5 70.8 55.5 8.8 12.8 24.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 13.5 16.6 17.0 121.6 67.5 54.8 7.0 10.9 15.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 17.5 19.6 17.9 122.5 69.3 54.4 5.5 15.7 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 18.1 30.7 16.7 126.8 71.1 55.8 6.2 12.6 24.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 7.6 28.0 16.6 125.7 70.8 55.6 1.5 15.6 22.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 9.3 30.4 16.7 121.7 68.7 54.4 3.0 19.9 28.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 20.9 26.4 19.0 127.5 69.7 58.1 8.1 17.0 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 15.9 26.8 17.3 120.6 66.4 53.5 2.3 11.1 26.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 6.0 30.4 16.5 126.2 70.0 55.5 4.1 12.6 26.6 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 5.4 20.5 12.7 126.7 71.2 56.5 6.7 10.4 15.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 17.5 21.6 18.2 121.7 69.2 54.4 6.9 12.1 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.6 18.5 14.0 128.5 69.0 57.2 6.0 9.4 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 16.6 29.1 22.5 121.4 69.0 54.4 6.1 9.6 28.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 13.3 14.6 15.6 119.3 66.2 54.4 6.1 9.5 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 6.9 21.8 14.1 134.5 72.9 57.4 7.9 13.4 17.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 13.9 17.8 15.3 129.2 69.6 57.8 5.3 11.6 16.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 16.1 20.2 17.1 121.0 68.4 55.2 7.0 12.5 20.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 5.4 14.6 16.1 120.2 66.0 54.3 4.7 9.6 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 22.3 26.3 17.1 121.7 67.5 54.3 4.8 16.2 24.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 4.5 19.6 14.8 118.1 66.5 54.7 4.1 9.8 19.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 16.7 21.6 16.9 125.8 69.5 54.8 2.6 11.6 20.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 24.3 43.1 19.1 121.4 69.3 54.6 7.9 16.0 36.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.5 16.3 13.6 121.7 67.1 56.2 4.3 8.0 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------