***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2020.-15.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 3.3 6.1 8.3 69.3 50.1 40.8 3.4 6.1 11.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 4.4 8.3 6.9 62.1 50.0 40.0 3.5 8.3 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 4.2 7.7 8.3 67.8 48.6 39.7 3.6 8.4 15.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.0 8.6 11.2 75.5 52.7 41.0 4.9 8.1 15.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 3.5 8.4 8.8 66.0 48.9 37.9 3.8 9.7 16.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.5 8.3 9.7 73.5 52.1 42.7 2.6 7.3 11.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 4.1 7.9 6.9 62.3 48.2 40.8 3.7 8.1 14.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 6.0 13.0 10.6 74.5 51.6 41.2 6.7 12.8 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 11.5 11.8 9.4 72.8 52.0 42.9 2.3 9.8 14.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 3.4 8.0 9.8 72.1 51.0 40.6 1.3 7.8 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 2.9 7.8 9.1 67.4 47.9 38.5 0.8 8.1 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.0 7.3 9.8 71.5 51.1 40.8 3.8 7.0 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.7 7.1 9.3 65.4 48.1 38.9 3.5 7.8 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 5.2 12.2 10.2 73.1 52.2 41.1 4.7 9.7 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 2.2 5.7 11.2 73.7 52.1 41.2 1.4 5.3 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 3.4 8.4 9.4 70.8 51.0 41.2 2.3 7.9 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 9.6 5.2 7.0 63.8 47.6 40.6 3.1 5.7 18.5 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 3.2 7.1 10.4 76.4 52.5 42.1 3.9 6.6 8.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 10.0 7.7 7.3 65.0 49.9 40.5 3.7 7.8 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 4.7 9.5 12.3 71.5 47.6 38.1 2.9 10.0 16.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 11.5 9.3 9.2 72.8 50.7 42.6 3.4 9.2 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 3.5 6.2 7.6 66.1 46.5 41.0 2.3 7.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.9 7.6 8.3 70.3 50.1 41.3 4.8 7.6 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 4.2 10.4 9.8 74.4 52.5 41.1 2.8 9.2 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 2.2 4.8 9.0 63.8 48.5 36.5 2.9 4.9 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 12.4 10.4 10.5 70.2 50.8 41.5 3.6 10.1 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 2.5 5.4 8.3 65.0 48.7 39.3 3.0 5.4 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 2.3 5.8 10.6 73.7 51.8 40.7 1.6 5.4 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 6.3 13.6 11.0 75.3 51.3 41.2 7.8 13.4 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 10.0 8.1 7.2 63.3 49.7 40.3 3.9 8.1 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------