***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.11.2020.-08.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 3.3 6.1 3.1 33.9 39.0 31.2 5.4 8.4 11.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.7 4.4 3.1 34.8 39.6 33.6 3.6 6.2 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 2.7 5.3 3.3 38.3 40.1 33.3 4.7 6.8 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 2.2 2.0 4.5 38.4 38.3 29.5 1.3 6.1 15.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 2.7 5.2 4.4 46.3 46.2 38.1 1.5 5.7 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 2.3 3.4 3.9 39.1 44.0 37.6 1.0 5.2 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 2.4 2.9 3.0 33.9 39.6 32.5 1.9 6.5 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 6.5 9.6 6.1 48.9 44.0 38.1 3.2 12.3 26.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 2.2 4.2 4.4 47.2 44.4 37.8 1.4 5.3 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.7 7.4 6.2 56.0 48.2 42.1 2.7 8.6 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 11.0 9.6 5.6 54.6 51.0 43.3 0.9 9.5 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 4.3 6.8 4.9 43.5 43.2 36.5 3.6 9.8 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 10.3 5.3 5.7 50.0 48.6 41.4 2.6 6.1 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 7.3 12.1 5.7 51.9 43.2 38.1 8.1 14.0 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 0.8 1.6 3.7 34.3 39.4 28.5 0.7 2.8 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.6 4.7 4.9 45.3 46.9 39.1 0.3 5.1 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 3.7 6.9 3.6 38.5 42.0 35.0 1.4 7.8 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 5.5 6.8 5.8 49.7 43.9 37.6 4.7 10.3 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 3.6 4.5 3.3 36.9 40.1 33.7 3.6 8.5 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 4.2 6.8 6.1 41.2 38.1 33.0 5.4 9.8 16.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 2.3 3.2 3.8 40.8 41.1 34.1 1.9 5.6 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 3.9 3.8 3.6 36.2 41.2 33.0 2.3 10.0 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 4.0 5.9 3.7 40.9 41.4 34.0 4.1 8.6 18.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 4.5 6.3 5.0 49.9 42.7 37.7 4.0 8.5 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 1.9 4.3 3.8 37.2 40.2 31.6 2.7 5.4 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 2.4 2.8 3.4 29.5 37.1 31.3 1.8 6.3 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 3.5 6.5 3.4 34.8 39.0 31.8 3.8 8.6 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 0.8 1.2 4.1 37.6 41.6 30.1 0.7 2.4 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 8.6 11.0 5.8 46.4 40.6 35.5 6.9 17.9 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 2.5 3.6 2.9 33.7 38.7 32.3 2.9 6.2 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------