***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.11.2020.-29.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9.3 10.0 9.8 -0.7 34.9 42.1 9.2 10.7 11.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 8.6 8.7 9.7 -0.8 33.6 40.7 8.6 10.4 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 9.7 9.7 10.1 -0.8 33.4 40.7 9.6 11.5 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 3.9 4.5 7.4 -0.4 39.9 46.6 3.6 5.1 5.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 9.5 9.5 8.6 -0.7 34.1 42.0 9.5 11.2 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 8.8 10.2 8.0 -0.5 38.8 44.7 9.8 10.4 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 8.5 8.3 9.7 -0.8 34.5 41.4 8.3 10.3 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 2.7 3.0 8.1 -0.6 36.7 42.8 2.9 4.1 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 10.2 10.1 9.3 -0.8 33.8 41.5 9.9 12.0 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 9.1 9.7 8.6 -0.7 35.4 41.7 9.4 10.9 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 9.4 10.1 8.8 -0.9 31.7 40.0 10.1 11.4 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 9.5 9.8 8.5 -0.7 34.1 41.2 9.7 11.4 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 9.8 10.0 8.5 -0.8 33.4 40.1 10.0 11.7 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 9.9 10.5 9.7 -0.7 37.2 41.6 9.6 11.5 12.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 9.6 8.8 8.5 -0.4 40.7 46.9 8.8 9.1 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 10.2 10.5 8.5 -0.8 33.1 41.1 10.5 12.1 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 8.2 9.0 9.5 -0.7 36.3 42.4 8.4 9.8 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 8.2 8.2 8.6 -0.6 37.3 42.6 8.0 10.2 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 9.0 9.0 9.9 -0.9 33.3 40.4 9.0 10.7 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 6.6 8.2 7.4 -0.3 42.0 45.4 7.0 8.7 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 9.7 9.8 9.8 -0.7 33.6 41.9 9.7 11.4 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 8.6 9.4 9.6 -0.7 36.7 42.8 9.0 10.4 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 9.1 9.2 10.2 -0.9 33.5 40.6 9.2 10.7 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 10.1 10.3 9.6 -0.8 35.1 41.3 10.0 11.9 13.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 8.9 9.2 8.7 -0.6 35.7 43.4 8.8 10.3 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 9.2 10.1 8.1 -0.5 36.8 43.4 10.0 11.0 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 9.5 9.8 9.4 -0.6 34.9 42.5 9.5 11.0 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 8.9 9.2 7.9 -0.4 39.5 46.2 8.8 9.9 11.3 29 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 6.0 6.8 8.3 -0.5 39.0 43.5 6.3 8.1 8.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 8.7 8.8 9.8 -0.8 33.8 40.6 8.7 10.3 10.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------