***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2020.-15.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9.5 11.2 10.5 -0.6 40.7 44.9 8.7 12.0 13.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 8.0 8.7 10.3 -0.7 41.1 43.1 7.9 10.1 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 9.4 10.0 10.8 -0.7 40.1 43.8 9.7 12.1 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 3.8 5.1 7.7 -0.3 43.2 46.9 3.5 6.1 7.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 10.2 10.5 9.3 -0.5 42.3 45.8 9.6 12.8 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 8.9 11.2 8.5 -0.2 47.6 48.5 9.3 11.3 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 7.8 8.5 10.3 -0.6 39.7 43.9 8.1 10.5 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 2.7 4.1 8.8 -0.3 43.4 47.4 2.7 4.3 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 10.0 10.7 10.0 -0.6 40.2 44.8 10.4 12.6 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 9.9 9.7 9.3 -0.4 42.9 46.6 9.4 11.9 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 10.1 10.8 9.7 -0.6 41.6 45.1 9.9 12.6 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 9.7 10.2 9.2 -0.4 41.8 45.9 10.1 12.4 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 10.1 11.6 9.5 -0.5 44.5 46.1 10.0 12.4 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 9.3 10.4 10.2 -0.5 42.0 45.4 9.2 11.9 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 10.2 8.7 8.9 -0.7 38.8 43.5 8.3 9.5 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 10.6 12.0 9.3 -0.5 43.9 46.1 10.7 12.9 14.6 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 7.3 8.4 10.0 -0.6 42.8 44.0 8.0 9.3 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 8.1 8.9 9.2 -0.3 43.5 47.4 8.2 9.9 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 8.3 9.4 10.5 -0.7 41.5 43.0 8.7 10.4 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 7.2 8.8 8.0 0.0 45.5 50.7 7.4 9.3 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 9.7 10.3 10.5 -0.6 39.9 45.1 9.6 12.3 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 7.9 9.4 10.1 -0.6 43.1 44.1 8.4 9.7 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 8.2 9.6 10.7 -0.7 42.5 43.4 8.9 10.0 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 9.7 11.3 10.3 -0.5 41.6 45.5 10.5 12.5 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 9.1 9.9 9.4 -0.5 42.6 46.2 8.6 11.2 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 9.6 11.6 8.9 -0.3 44.8 48.0 10.2 11.7 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 9.7 9.9 10.2 -0.5 42.3 46.0 9.2 12.1 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 8.5 9.3 8.4 -0.5 41.7 45.4 8.4 9.9 10.8 29 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 6.4 8.4 8.8 -0.2 44.1 48.4 6.8 8.7 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 8.2 8.6 10.4 -0.7 39.3 43.4 8.3 10.8 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------