***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.11.2020.-08.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 13.5 12.2 13.5 -0.7 40.5 42.2 10.4 13.0 14.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 13.0 11.7 13.6 -0.8 38.6 40.4 11.2 12.6 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 13.9 11.9 13.8 -1.0 36.1 37.7 11.4 13.3 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 94 6 100 7.1 6.8 10.9 0.1 48.4 48.8 4.6 6.9 8.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 13.8 11.7 12.5 -0.8 37.9 39.5 11.1 13.4 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 13.6 11.8 11.0 -1.1 32.1 34.3 11.9 12.8 14.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 88 12 100 12.6 11.4 13.4 -0.8 38.2 40.1 10.4 12.2 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 6.9 4.1 11.6 -0.8 33.3 35.9 4.0 6.2 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 14.4 11.7 13.3 -0.9 37.2 38.3 11.3 14.0 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 13.7 11.0 12.2 -1.0 32.6 34.7 11.0 12.9 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 13.9 11.7 12.7 -1.3 32.6 34.2 11.8 13.1 14.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 14.0 11.3 12.0 -1.0 34.1 35.7 11.3 13.4 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 10.9 10.9 12.4 -1.5 30.1 31.5 11.7 13.5 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.9 11.6 13.5 -1.0 33.5 36.0 11.6 13.2 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 96 4 100 12.3 12.2 12.9 0.3 53.1 53.4 11.6 12.2 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 14.6 12.2 12.2 -1.2 33.4 34.4 12.2 13.8 15.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 12.7 11.3 13.2 -0.6 40.0 42.2 10.5 12.4 13.9 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 10.6 10.1 12.0 -0.9 31.5 34.5 10.1 12.1 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 13.2 11.4 13.8 -0.8 38.2 39.6 11.0 12.9 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 8.4 9.3 10.9 -0.5 32.9 37.2 9.3 10.5 12.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 13.9 11.6 13.8 -0.9 36.8 38.3 11.1 13.5 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 90 10 100 12.8 11.8 13.6 -0.4 42.2 44.1 11.4 12.5 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 13.3 11.5 14.0 -0.9 37.7 38.8 11.2 12.9 15.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 14.6 11.7 13.4 -1.1 32.7 34.7 11.7 13.9 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 89 11 100 12.6 12.1 12.7 -0.6 42.2 43.0 10.5 12.3 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 13.9 12.5 11.6 -0.6 36.5 39.0 12.3 13.4 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 88 12 100 13.5 11.9 13.2 -0.7 39.7 41.4 11.1 13.1 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 92 8 100 12.4 12.2 11.9 0.0 48.4 48.4 11.4 12.2 13.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 7.2 8.0 11.8 -0.7 30.9 35.3 8.1 9.6 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 13.0 11.4 13.6 -0.8 38.1 40.1 10.7 12.7 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------