***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2020.-15.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 1.1 2.3 4.2 -0.6 42.8 44.3 1.7 3.0 4.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 1.0 2.0 3.8 -0.4 45.6 45.3 1.0 2.6 3.7 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 2.9 3.8 4.3 -0.5 42.5 45.1 3.2 4.1 5.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 -2.4 -1.0 1.9 -0.5 44.0 44.9 -1.9 -0.8 0.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 2.0 1.0 2.7 -0.5 43.4 44.9 0.1 1.2 3.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 -0.6 -0.2 0.6 -0.5 41.7 44.3 -0.8 1.5 3.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 2.8 1.7 3.7 -0.5 45.1 44.7 1.0 2.2 3.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -1.8 -2.4 1.2 -0.1 48.4 48.8 -4.0 -2.4 -1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 3.2 2.1 2.8 -0.4 42.9 45.5 1.1 2.8 3.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 2.5 1.2 1.7 -0.2 46.6 47.8 0.1 1.9 3.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 2.2 1.3 2.4 -0.4 45.4 45.7 0.0 1.9 3.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 -0.7 0.9 1.7 -0.3 47.7 46.8 -1.0 1.0 2.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 2.1 0.9 1.3 -0.5 44.1 44.2 -0.3 1.6 2.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 3.3 2.9 2.9 0.0 47.3 49.5 1.8 2.9 4.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 0.0 1.6 3.2 -0.7 41.8 43.1 1.2 2.0 2.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 1.0 2.4 1.8 -0.5 44.6 44.9 0.8 3.0 4.2 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 1.0 2.0 3.6 -0.3 46.2 46.2 1.0 2.3 3.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 1.2 0.5 1.3 0.0 48.1 49.5 -0.9 0.8 1.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 1.2 2.1 3.9 -0.4 44.5 45.5 0.9 2.7 3.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -3.8 -1.4 0.3 0.1 48.2 50.1 -3.9 -1.3 -0.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 1.1 1.6 3.7 -0.6 42.3 44.3 1.1 2.6 3.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 0.6 1.4 3.7 -0.3 45.2 46.3 0.6 1.8 3.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 2.8 1.4 3.9 -0.4 43.6 46.0 0.8 2.3 3.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 1.9 1.2 2.6 -0.2 45.9 47.7 0.3 1.4 2.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 0.7 1.7 3.5 -0.6 44.2 44.6 0.9 1.9 3.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 0.0 1.5 1.2 -0.4 44.4 45.7 -0.4 2.2 3.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 1.4 2.6 3.8 -0.6 42.8 43.9 1.6 2.9 4.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 -1.3 0.4 2.1 -0.6 41.7 43.4 -0.3 0.7 2.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 0.7 0.0 0.9 0.1 48.2 50.1 -1.1 0.2 1.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 1.2 2.5 4.0 -0.5 44.1 44.7 1.5 2.7 4.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------