***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.11.2020.-08.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 93 7 100 4.4 4.2 7.0 0.1 47.9 49.4 2.8 4.2 5.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 3.5 3.7 7.1 0.7 60.9 57.1 2.0 3.0 4.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 92 8 100 5.2 5.8 7.5 0.4 54.6 54.4 4.4 4.9 6.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 90 10 100 0.3 1.5 5.4 1.2 63.0 63.3 -1.3 0.0 2.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 94 6 100 3.2 3.4 6.1 0.6 56.2 55.4 1.8 3.0 4.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 90 10 100 2.4 3.7 3.5 0.8 60.4 58.2 0.7 2.1 3.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 3.4 3.4 6.9 0.5 55.6 54.8 2.0 3.0 4.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 46 54 100 0.7 0.9 4.5 1.2 65.6 63.7 -2.6 -0.7 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 89 11 100 4.2 5.2 6.3 0.9 64.1 61.0 3.2 4.0 5.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 44 56 100 5.2 5.1 5.2 1.3 67.4 64.7 2.9 4.2 5.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 90 10 100 3.8 4.1 5.7 0.8 60.6 58.8 2.2 3.7 4.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 92 8 100 2.4 2.9 4.8 0.7 58.4 57.1 1.2 2.2 3.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 94 6 100 2.7 3.4 4.5 0.7 59.5 56.7 0.7 2.6 3.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 48 52 100 5.6 6.0 6.8 1.7 70.0 68.3 3.2 4.2 5.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 4.1 4.5 6.5 1.0 62.5 62.5 2.7 3.9 4.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 93 7 100 4.0 4.4 4.9 0.6 58.0 56.3 2.1 3.9 5.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 3.8 4.0 7.0 1.0 63.9 60.5 2.4 3.3 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 3.6 3.8 5.2 1.6 71.3 68.6 0.8 2.5 3.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 3.8 4.2 7.3 0.8 62.9 59.1 2.6 3.5 4.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 47 53 100 0.9 1.0 3.8 1.2 66.2 64.2 -1.6 -0.1 1.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 90 10 100 4.0 4.1 6.9 0.4 54.0 54.2 2.5 3.8 4.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 43 57 100 4.3 4.2 7.6 1.3 66.9 64.0 2.0 2.8 4.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 89 11 100 3.8 4.2 7.5 1.1 64.5 62.7 2.5 3.5 4.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 45 55 100 4.7 4.3 6.6 1.4 67.3 65.8 2.2 3.8 4.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 93 7 100 3.9 3.7 6.5 0.1 49.7 50.1 2.5 3.7 5.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 92 8 100 3.2 3.2 3.9 0.3 51.8 51.9 1.1 3.0 4.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 93 7 100 3.6 3.0 6.6 -0.1 46.5 47.5 1.7 3.3 5.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 89 11 100 2.1 3.1 5.5 1.1 61.8 61.8 0.9 1.9 3.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 3.7 3.7 4.6 1.6 71.2 69.5 0.6 1.5 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 3.9 3.8 7.2 0.4 55.9 54.3 2.7 3.5 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------