***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.11.2015.-29.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 73 27 0 100 25.2 28.1 24.9 60.6 27.6 27.3 30.0 41.8 55.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 25.1 21.9 24.8 63.4 27.4 27.7 24.6 43.5 52.3 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 31.4 26.4 24.8 58.5 23.4 24.8 30.5 52.8 62.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 79 21 0 100 32.6 31.3 29.1 58.3 22.1 26.8 42.6 53.9 63.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 83 17 0 100 27.2 26.8 28.4 58.5 22.9 25.9 31.6 45.8 65.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 75 25 0 100 27.6 25.7 30.6 59.0 23.9 27.8 33.9 43.7 55.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 24.4 23.5 24.9 64.5 29.9 29.4 24.2 38.1 49.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 79 21 0 100 38.5 31.3 30.8 58.5 22.7 26.3 46.1 74.3 97.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 80 20 0 100 24.6 24.1 28.7 59.7 22.1 26.0 28.3 47.0 56.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 80 20 0 100 29.6 29.4 30.8 59.0 21.4 25.7 34.9 48.8 58.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 81 19 0 100 26.6 24.9 26.6 57.9 25.9 26.4 29.0 44.8 62.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 81 19 0 100 26.2 29.2 27.2 58.7 26.0 27.5 32.1 55.8 63.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 34.3 32.1 28.5 58.7 24.1 27.8 37.2 50.1 67.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 76 24 0 100 41.5 36.2 31.3 59.3 19.6 22.8 51.8 64.7 87.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 76 24 0 100 23.0 21.3 30.4 58.1 24.8 28.2 31.1 44.4 70.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 74 26 0 100 28.8 31.7 27.0 58.4 25.4 27.0 42.7 46.3 50.4 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 24.3 22.6 24.7 64.9 30.8 29.8 28.2 38.8 46.0 30 Palic 37000G16 83 17 0 100 28.3 23.5 33.8 59.1 20.1 24.5 45.6 56.7 75.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 70 30 0 100 29.4 25.6 24.8 61.6 26.0 26.0 31.6 47.8 63.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 81 19 0 100 41.1 33.7 40.0 57.7 18.1 24.9 44.8 75.1 82.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 78 22 0 100 26.9 24.8 26.9 60.3 23.2 26.7 33.0 45.9 57.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 26.8 26.5 25.7 63.6 27.7 27.9 33.2 44.4 62.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 31.2 33.8 25.6 59.6 24.9 23.7 41.5 49.4 56.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 79 21 0 100 29.6 23.5 29.7 57.9 20.5 23.1 37.1 58.4 68.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 77 23 0 100 24.2 28.1 28.9 59.7 25.5 27.0 32.2 40.7 49.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 83 17 0 100 28.3 30.7 27.7 56.3 23.6 26.5 32.8 43.5 65.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 72 28 0 100 28.3 32.1 27.5 61.0 28.4 27.8 33.6 44.3 53.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 77 23 0 100 23.3 20.7 29.2 58.4 23.3 27.4 28.7 42.8 58.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 82 18 0 100 48.9 43.3 36.0 58.5 18.3 24.1 71.1 88.6 108.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 24.6 21.8 24.7 62.1 28.2 27.1 23.1 39.1 53.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------