***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.11.2015.-29.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 1.6 4.0 8.4 83.5 54.1 46.5 1.9 3.5 7.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 5.6 5.7 9.3 108.0 63.8 49.2 1.9 3.3 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 2.4 6.7 8.6 80.4 54.8 46.3 1.6 5.4 10.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 4.3 7.5 10.2 81.4 52.7 45.0 4.1 6.8 11.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 2.7 5.4 9.6 76.0 50.1 44.1 2.4 5.3 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 2.6 9.3 10.7 84.0 57.5 46.7 2.5 5.2 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 1.7 9.8 9.4 113.1 65.8 49.3 1.7 3.4 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 11.5 9.3 11.0 83.2 53.2 47.4 4.3 8.3 14.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.3 5.4 9.6 74.9 46.7 44.0 2.4 6.1 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 9.2 7.0 10.7 78.8 51.0 46.1 3.5 7.0 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 4.1 9.4 9.3 76.3 51.5 44.9 2.8 8.1 10.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.5 8.4 9.8 82.3 51.7 46.8 3.7 8.1 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 3.3 6.3 10.1 82.8 51.3 46.5 2.9 6.3 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 10.7 8.4 10.9 84.3 53.5 48.5 4.3 7.4 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 3.1 7.5 11.0 87.4 56.3 44.9 3.8 6.8 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 2.8 7.2 9.6 80.1 52.9 45.7 2.1 5.9 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 7.3 11.8 9.8 126.9 69.2 51.1 1.8 5.6 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 10.9 8.7 11.9 82.0 52.9 47.3 3.7 8.1 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 8.4 6.7 9.1 99.4 61.7 49.1 1.1 5.8 9.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 12.0 12.4 14.6 88.8 56.0 49.0 3.7 8.2 16.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 2.7 5.5 8.8 75.3 49.3 44.6 2.3 5.6 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 8.8 11.0 9.9 117.1 66.5 51.1 2.3 7.3 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 2.9 6.8 9.2 88.6 58.6 48.9 2.4 5.8 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 9.4 7.0 10.4 79.1 52.4 47.0 3.2 6.1 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 3.3 7.5 9.7 83.0 53.5 46.5 2.5 7.1 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 2.9 6.6 10.4 91.4 55.4 48.5 4.3 5.5 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 2.6 6.4 9.3 88.2 54.8 47.5 3.1 5.4 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 3.3 9.9 10.6 84.1 54.8 45.2 3.4 6.6 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 15.8 13.3 12.9 84.7 54.5 48.1 6.3 11.0 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 1.9 5.2 8.9 98.1 61.2 48.4 1.9 3.8 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------