***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2015.-22.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 12.8 11.5 9.6 90.1 53.6 46.8 6.4 11.0 14.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.9 10.2 9.4 90.1 55.0 45.6 4.4 8.8 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 5.8 10.7 9.3 85.9 54.3 44.9 7.6 9.3 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 6.8 16.3 10.6 87.6 53.3 45.2 5.7 14.6 23.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 5.6 12.8 9.9 87.9 53.1 45.3 6.2 12.5 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 6.2 17.3 10.8 94.0 56.0 45.5 3.8 13.3 25.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 5.1 11.3 9.5 92.8 56.3 46.4 4.7 9.2 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 5.6 15.8 10.8 86.0 55.1 43.8 8.8 12.8 24.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 4.4 11.0 9.9 88.0 54.5 45.3 7.0 10.9 15.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 6.5 16.7 10.6 85.6 55.0 44.5 5.5 15.7 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 4.9 13.1 9.3 88.8 53.9 44.8 6.2 12.6 24.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 5.6 17.4 9.5 90.3 56.5 44.7 1.5 15.6 22.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 7.7 21.3 10.1 94.7 54.9 46.7 3.0 19.9 28.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 9.1 18.9 11.3 87.7 55.2 44.1 8.1 17.0 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 4.8 11.8 11.3 87.2 54.7 44.6 2.3 11.1 26.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 5.1 16.6 9.5 92.7 53.6 45.2 4.1 12.6 26.6 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 5.7 13.4 8.9 89.0 59.0 45.8 6.7 10.4 15.3 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 5.5 15.1 11.5 82.2 55.0 43.4 6.9 12.1 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 4.9 11.9 9.3 87.8 54.6 44.9 6.0 9.4 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 4.3 11.4 14.7 80.9 55.5 43.3 6.1 9.6 28.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 5.0 11.4 9.6 89.4 56.3 45.7 6.1 9.5 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 6.1 15.1 9.2 87.9 56.5 44.7 7.9 13.4 17.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 5.8 12.9 9.6 86.4 55.5 44.3 5.3 11.6 16.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 5.5 13.6 10.4 83.4 52.9 43.5 7.0 12.5 20.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 5.0 10.5 10.6 86.0 52.3 44.6 4.7 9.6 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 5.9 20.3 9.3 86.0 56.9 44.3 4.8 16.2 24.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 4.7 12.3 10.5 88.2 54.1 45.8 4.1 9.8 19.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 4.9 15.8 10.6 88.9 54.6 45.0 2.6 11.6 20.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 8.4 20.2 12.4 79.4 53.0 42.9 7.9 16.0 36.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.4 10.2 9.5 89.9 54.6 45.8 4.3 8.0 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------