***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2015.-15.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 77 23 0 100 2.1 4.7 6.3 61.1 43.8 35.2 3.4 6.1 11.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 73 27 0 100 2.7 3.8 5.6 53.0 37.1 32.0 3.5 8.3 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 2.6 4.2 6.3 56.6 38.8 33.4 3.6 8.4 15.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 3.0 6.7 7.6 63.0 45.6 35.4 4.9 8.1 15.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 3.1 5.0 7.9 63.4 40.1 35.9 3.8 9.7 16.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 2.6 4.8 8.5 55.8 38.2 35.1 2.6 7.3 11.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 2.8 5.0 5.4 53.7 38.3 33.4 3.7 8.1 14.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 4.4 8.0 8.2 57.9 38.8 35.0 6.7 12.8 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 3.7 4.5 8.4 64.5 41.7 36.6 2.3 9.8 14.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 2.8 4.2 8.7 61.9 40.1 35.7 1.3 7.8 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 2.7 6.5 7.2 60.7 42.3 36.5 0.8 8.1 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 2.5 4.5 7.2 57.4 40.3 36.5 3.8 7.0 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 3.0 4.0 7.6 56.3 37.9 36.2 3.5 7.8 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 72 28 0 100 3.8 5.6 8.3 55.9 38.9 34.0 4.7 9.7 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 76 24 0 100 1.4 4.3 7.5 55.6 45.3 33.3 1.4 5.3 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 2.8 3.5 7.1 57.9 39.0 35.8 2.3 7.9 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 75 25 0 100 1.8 4.2 5.4 52.9 38.0 33.1 3.1 5.7 18.5 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 2.5 4.7 9.6 61.3 39.4 35.3 3.9 6.6 8.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 2.4 4.1 5.8 52.9 37.6 31.6 3.7 7.8 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 3.6 4.3 10.0 55.7 39.4 32.4 2.9 10.0 16.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 3.5 5.3 7.6 66.0 42.1 37.5 3.4 9.2 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 77 23 0 100 1.7 3.0 6.0 53.4 35.5 32.0 2.3 7.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 2.3 5.4 6.3 53.0 39.1 32.1 4.8 7.6 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 3.2 4.2 8.2 57.7 38.3 34.5 2.8 9.2 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 1.7 4.1 7.7 62.1 43.4 34.7 2.9 4.9 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 3.7 6.3 7.4 52.2 39.1 35.5 3.6 10.1 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 73 27 0 100 1.5 4.7 6.9 60.3 41.3 34.5 3.0 5.4 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 1.7 3.9 7.4 58.6 44.7 34.5 1.6 5.4 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 4.8 11.5 9.8 59.5 39.5 34.5 7.8 13.4 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 74 26 0 100 2.9 4.7 5.6 54.3 38.1 32.4 3.9 8.1 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------