***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.11.2015.-08.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 96 4 0 100 0.5 1.3 0.7 6.6 21.4 17.0 5.4 8.4 11.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 98 2 0 100 0.2 0.2 0.6 5.9 16.4 13.0 3.6 6.2 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 96 4 0 100 0.4 0.0 0.6 6.5 13.8 12.0 4.7 6.8 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 97 3 0 100 0.5 0.1 0.7 5.1 9.2 7.9 1.3 6.1 15.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 96 4 0 100 0.2 0.0 0.9 7.5 15.0 12.6 1.5 5.7 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 91 9 0 100 0.5 0.0 0.7 5.3 13.5 9.8 1.0 5.2 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 99 1 0 100 0.1 0.0 0.6 5.7 15.5 12.5 1.9 6.5 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 95 5 0 100 1.8 0.3 0.7 5.8 11.8 8.5 3.2 12.3 26.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 96 4 0 100 0.2 0.0 0.8 7.7 15.2 12.6 1.4 5.3 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 95 5 0 100 0.9 0.5 0.9 7.1 13.2 10.3 2.7 8.6 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 94 6 0 100 0.6 0.0 0.8 7.0 17.2 13.6 0.9 9.5 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 94 6 0 100 0.7 0.0 0.7 6.0 13.7 11.0 3.6 9.8 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 91 9 0 100 0.6 0.0 0.8 6.2 15.7 11.9 2.6 6.1 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 96 4 0 100 2.2 1.3 0.8 6.5 10.8 9.5 8.1 14.0 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 97 3 0 100 0.1 0.0 0.6 4.3 9.1 7.0 0.7 2.8 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 93 7 0 100 0.4 0.0 0.7 6.3 17.1 12.6 0.3 5.1 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 99 1 0 100 0.2 0.2 0.6 5.6 18.1 15.2 1.4 7.8 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 96 4 0 100 1.7 0.8 0.8 6.3 11.5 8.9 4.7 10.3 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 97 3 0 100 0.6 0.3 0.6 6.1 13.2 11.3 3.6 8.5 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 97 3 0 100 1.2 0.4 0.7 4.1 8.7 5.5 5.4 9.8 16.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 96 4 0 100 0.5 0.3 0.8 7.8 16.6 13.5 1.9 5.6 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 97 3 0 100 0.5 0.2 0.6 6.1 14.1 12.7 2.3 10.0 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 96 4 0 100 1.3 0.3 0.6 6.3 11.1 10.5 4.1 8.6 18.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 96 4 0 100 1.6 1.0 0.7 6.5 11.8 10.2 4.0 8.5 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 95 5 0 100 0.3 0.0 0.9 7.2 14.7 12.5 2.7 5.4 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 94 6 0 100 0.4 0.0 0.6 4.6 10.8 9.1 1.8 6.3 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 95 5 0 100 0.5 0.1 0.7 6.7 16.7 14.3 3.8 8.6 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 97 3 0 100 0.1 0.0 0.6 4.6 9.9 7.8 0.7 2.4 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 97 3 0 100 2.9 0.0 0.8 5.6 9.3 6.6 6.9 17.9 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 97 3 0 100 0.2 0.1 0.6 6.0 17.1 13.0 2.9 6.2 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------