***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.11.2015.-29.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9.3 8.7 8.6 -1.3 26.2 31.9 9.2 10.7 11.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 8.5 7.9 8.6 -1.2 24.9 31.6 8.6 10.4 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 9.6 9.1 8.7 -1.2 26.8 32.7 9.6 11.5 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 5.5 4.5 6.8 -0.7 40.2 42.3 3.6 5.1 5.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.7 9.8 7.3 -0.9 36.6 39.2 9.5 11.2 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 11.0 10.3 6.7 -0.6 42.9 42.7 9.8 10.4 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 8.3 7.8 8.5 -1.2 25.1 31.1 8.3 10.3 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 4.5 3.8 7.1 -0.3 45.3 46.2 2.9 4.1 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 12.5 10.6 8.1 -0.9 36.2 38.9 9.9 12.0 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 11.4 10.1 7.5 -0.6 39.8 42.2 9.4 10.9 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 12.0 10.2 7.3 -0.8 38.0 39.9 10.1 11.4 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 11.8 10.8 7.3 -0.6 40.3 41.7 9.7 11.4 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 12.2 10.0 6.9 -1.0 33.7 36.5 10.0 11.7 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 9.8 9.5 8.3 -1.0 31.8 36.2 9.6 11.5 12.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 9.6 8.8 7.4 -0.6 42.2 44.5 8.8 9.1 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.6 10.9 7.0 -0.9 36.2 38.4 10.5 12.1 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 8.2 7.3 8.4 -1.2 25.0 32.2 8.4 9.8 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 10.6 8.6 7.5 -0.5 39.6 43.6 8.0 10.2 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 8.8 8.1 8.8 -1.2 25.7 32.4 9.0 10.7 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.1 8.8 6.4 0.1 51.6 52.2 7.0 8.7 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 9.8 9.4 8.4 -1.1 31.3 35.9 9.7 11.4 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 8.4 7.7 8.5 -1.2 25.4 32.3 9.0 10.4 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 8.9 7.9 8.9 -1.1 27.2 34.3 9.2 10.7 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 12.5 9.9 8.3 -0.9 32.7 37.6 10.0 11.9 13.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.7 8.9 7.4 -1.0 34.0 36.5 8.8 10.3 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 11.4 10.3 6.9 -0.7 39.8 40.2 10.0 11.0 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 9.5 9.3 8.0 -1.2 29.4 33.2 9.5 11.0 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 10.3 9.2 7.1 -0.7 39.7 42.7 8.8 9.9 11.3 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 8.5 7.6 7.2 -0.3 43.8 46.7 6.3 8.1 8.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 8.5 8.0 8.7 -1.3 24.8 31.4 8.7 10.3 10.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------