***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.11.2015.-29.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 11.2 10.1 8.0 1.3 69.3 62.0 5.5 8.8 10.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 11.1 11.9 7.9 1.3 73.7 62.9 6.5 8.3 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 12.2 11.2 8.1 1.3 69.0 62.2 7.9 9.8 11.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 4.1 4.6 5.7 1.2 66.5 61.3 1.9 3.6 4.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 11.5 11.0 6.3 1.3 67.6 61.5 8.1 9.5 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.7 10.0 5.7 1.3 62.6 60.8 6.8 8.0 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 10.7 11.9 7.8 1.3 72.8 62.9 6.2 7.9 9.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 4.3 3.3 5.9 1.4 65.7 62.8 0.6 2.4 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 12.5 12.0 7.1 1.4 68.5 61.8 8.8 10.1 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 11.4 10.6 6.6 1.4 66.7 62.5 7.0 9.0 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 12.2 10.5 6.3 1.4 65.8 62.1 7.7 9.9 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 11.7 11.5 6.2 1.3 64.5 61.5 7.7 9.7 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.6 11.2 5.8 1.2 62.4 60.1 7.9 9.7 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 12.7 11.9 7.7 1.5 67.9 63.2 7.3 9.4 11.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 7.7 10.1 6.0 1.2 67.6 61.7 5.4 6.8 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 11.0 12.4 6.0 1.3 64.1 60.9 8.0 10.3 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 10.3 11.0 7.7 1.3 72.4 63.4 5.6 7.9 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 9.0 8.8 6.6 1.5 66.3 62.7 4.9 7.7 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 11.5 12.1 8.1 1.3 72.7 63.0 6.8 8.4 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 8.2 7.8 5.1 1.4 65.6 63.0 3.2 5.5 7.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 12.1 11.4 7.6 1.3 68.5 61.7 7.8 9.7 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 11.0 10.9 7.8 1.3 71.6 62.8 6.1 7.9 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 11.1 11.2 8.3 1.4 71.2 63.4 6.8 8.0 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 12.8 11.7 7.6 1.5 67.2 62.8 7.9 10.1 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 10.5 10.0 6.5 1.3 66.1 62.2 6.7 9.3 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.1 9.4 5.6 1.0 60.2 58.8 6.5 8.2 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 12.4 11.4 7.3 1.3 68.0 62.5 6.8 10.1 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.2 9.9 5.9 1.3 66.7 61.0 6.3 7.5 9.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 8.1 8.0 6.1 1.5 65.5 62.7 3.3 5.9 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 10.9 11.5 8.0 1.3 71.7 62.5 6.5 8.2 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------