***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2015.-15.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 9.4 8.4 8.4 -1.9 26.6 31.9 8.7 12.0 13.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 7.8 7.7 8.5 -1.6 27.5 32.6 7.9 10.1 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 9.2 9.4 8.5 -1.8 28.3 32.7 9.7 12.1 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 3.4 3.1 6.5 -1.7 30.9 34.7 3.5 6.1 7.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 10.4 9.6 6.8 -1.8 30.7 33.9 9.6 12.8 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 9.0 8.7 5.8 -1.8 29.9 36.1 9.3 11.3 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 7.3 7.6 8.4 -1.7 25.9 32.0 8.1 10.5 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 3.0 3.1 6.5 -1.3 35.9 40.2 2.7 4.3 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 10.2 10.3 7.4 -1.8 31.1 34.0 10.4 12.6 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 10.2 9.4 6.9 -1.5 33.8 37.5 9.4 11.9 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 10.6 9.8 6.7 -1.7 31.5 35.4 9.9 12.6 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 10.2 10.1 6.8 -1.5 33.3 36.8 10.1 12.4 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 12.9 9.8 6.2 -1.9 28.7 34.1 10.0 12.4 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 9.5 8.9 7.8 -1.8 31.1 35.4 9.2 11.9 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 7.9 8.1 7.0 -1.4 30.5 36.3 8.3 9.5 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 11.0 10.6 6.4 -1.8 31.3 34.2 10.7 12.9 14.6 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 6.9 7.2 8.3 -1.6 24.9 32.5 8.0 9.3 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 8.4 8.3 6.8 -1.5 33.6 39.1 8.2 9.9 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 8.1 8.2 8.7 -1.7 28.3 32.9 8.7 10.4 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 7.3 8.1 5.6 -0.9 38.9 44.2 7.4 9.3 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 9.7 9.5 7.9 -1.9 28.6 32.8 9.6 12.3 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 7.6 7.9 8.4 -1.7 25.6 32.4 8.4 9.7 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 8.0 8.4 8.7 -1.8 28.7 33.5 8.9 10.0 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 10.2 10.3 7.7 -1.7 31.8 35.9 10.5 12.5 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 8.8 7.9 7.0 -1.8 27.2 33.4 8.6 11.2 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 9.7 9.7 6.4 -1.6 29.6 36.9 10.2 11.7 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 9.6 8.7 7.7 -1.8 25.6 32.6 9.2 12.1 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 8.4 8.4 6.7 -1.6 31.9 35.4 8.4 9.9 10.8 29 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 6.8 7.2 6.3 -1.3 35.4 40.8 6.8 8.7 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 8.0 8.2 8.6 -1.7 27.3 32.4 8.3 10.8 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------