***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.11.2015.-08.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 98 2 0 100 9.4 9.1 9.5 -4.1 14.8 14.8 10.4 13.0 14.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 98 2 0 100 9.5 8.4 9.4 -4.2 12.7 14.2 11.2 12.6 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 97 3 0 100 9.6 9.4 9.7 -4.1 15.7 15.7 11.4 13.3 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 4.1 3.9 8.7 -2.1 30.6 29.4 4.6 6.9 8.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 84 16 0 100 10.3 10.4 9.4 -2.8 22.8 24.7 11.1 13.4 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 13.5 12.2 9.2 -1.7 34.6 35.2 11.9 12.8 14.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 99 1 0 100 9.3 8.3 9.3 -4.2 11.5 14.1 10.4 12.2 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 6.8 4.6 9.5 -1.6 36.1 35.8 4.0 6.2 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 80 20 0 100 10.9 10.4 10.2 -2.9 21.9 23.7 11.3 14.0 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 11.3 10.9 9.7 -2.3 29.8 29.6 11.0 12.9 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 10.7 10.7 9.5 -2.7 25.6 26.7 11.8 13.1 14.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 11.3 11.3 9.5 -2.1 32.1 31.1 11.3 13.4 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 82 18 0 100 10.2 10.8 9.3 -2.9 28.0 26.3 11.7 13.5 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 91 9 0 100 10.0 10.7 9.5 -3.8 20.3 20.0 11.6 13.2 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 10.3 11.5 10.4 -1.7 30.9 30.5 11.6 12.2 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 80 20 0 100 10.8 11.2 9.3 -2.7 25.7 26.4 12.2 13.8 15.4 30 Nis 06700G01 99 1 0 100 9.2 8.2 9.1 -4.1 12.8 15.1 10.5 12.4 13.9 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 10.6 10.1 9.6 -2.0 33.7 32.7 10.1 12.1 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 98 2 0 100 9.3 8.8 9.6 -4.2 13.3 14.7 11.0 12.9 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 10.9 10.1 9.4 -0.4 43.1 44.8 9.3 10.5 12.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 90 10 0 100 10.6 10.4 10.1 -3.4 19.1 19.9 11.1 13.5 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 97 3 0 100 8.4 8.1 9.3 -4.1 13.0 15.1 11.4 12.5 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 98 2 0 100 9.0 8.9 9.7 -4.0 14.5 16.0 11.2 12.9 15.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 79 21 0 100 11.2 10.8 9.8 -3.3 23.6 23.1 11.7 13.9 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 91 9 0 100 8.9 9.4 9.2 -3.3 19.5 20.9 10.5 12.3 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 14.1 12.4 9.3 -1.7 35.1 34.0 12.3 13.4 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 95 5 0 100 9.5 9.3 9.3 -3.9 16.4 17.1 11.1 13.1 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 10.6 11.3 9.5 -2.0 31.5 30.2 11.4 12.2 13.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 10.2 9.1 9.7 -1.3 37.2 37.3 8.1 9.6 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 98 2 0 100 9.7 8.9 9.5 -4.3 12.4 14.0 10.7 12.7 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------