***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.11.2015.-29.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 3.2 3.4 2.5 1.1 74.0 61.9 -0.2 1.2 2.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 2.9 3.6 2.4 1.1 73.0 62.8 -0.4 1.0 3.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 4.8 4.9 2.2 1.0 68.8 60.3 1.1 2.7 4.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 -2.0 -1.1 -0.3 1.1 64.7 60.5 -3.7 -2.8 -1.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 1.3 2.2 -0.2 1.2 65.0 60.3 -1.1 0.7 2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 1.3 0.8 -1.6 1.2 61.3 58.1 -2.2 0.5 1.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 2.9 3.7 2.4 1.2 75.2 63.6 -0.2 1.0 2.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 -3.3 -1.9 -0.9 1.6 63.9 61.7 -5.7 -3.8 -1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 2.0 3.4 0.6 1.2 68.6 60.4 0.1 1.5 2.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 1.1 2.0 -0.3 1.5 65.5 61.4 -1.1 0.5 2.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 1.2 1.7 -0.4 1.4 62.4 60.3 -1.7 0.7 1.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 0.2 0.3 -0.5 1.4 61.3 59.6 -2.4 -0.5 0.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 0.8 1.0 -0.9 1.2 60.7 58.4 -1.6 0.3 1.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 3.3 4.1 0.9 1.3 71.2 61.0 0.3 1.5 3.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 1.7 2.0 0.3 1.0 63.5 60.7 -1.1 1.0 2.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 1.9 2.5 -0.9 1.3 60.7 59.0 -0.4 1.0 2.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 2.6 3.4 2.4 1.2 73.4 64.2 -0.5 0.8 2.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 -0.3 0.2 -0.6 1.5 64.8 61.3 -2.0 -0.8 0.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 2.9 2.8 2.3 1.1 71.1 61.9 -0.4 0.8 2.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 -2.9 -1.9 -1.9 1.7 65.8 63.2 -5.0 -3.5 -1.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 -0.6 2.9 1.7 1.1 71.6 60.5 -0.4 0.9 2.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 2.4 2.7 2.3 1.1 69.9 62.5 -0.5 0.5 2.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 2.7 2.7 2.0 1.1 70.3 61.2 -0.1 0.9 2.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 0.8 2.2 0.6 1.3 68.0 60.5 -0.9 0.2 2.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 2.3 2.1 0.9 1.1 68.4 61.1 -0.5 1.7 2.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 1.0 1.2 -0.8 1.0 58.8 56.7 -1.8 0.2 1.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 3.7 4.4 1.8 1.1 72.0 62.0 -0.3 0.9 2.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 0.6 1.2 -0.3 1.2 63.2 60.4 -2.2 -0.2 1.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 -0.8 0.8 -1.0 1.6 65.9 62.1 -3.7 -1.6 0.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 3.1 3.8 2.4 1.1 72.1 62.0 0.2 1.0 3.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------