***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2015.-22.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 -0.2 0.5 2.3 -0.9 38.9 43.1 0.1 1.0 4.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 1.7 0.3 2.4 -0.5 43.5 46.9 -0.2 0.7 3.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 3.8 2.0 2.1 -0.8 38.7 43.1 1.4 2.8 5.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 -0.8 -4.0 -0.2 -0.7 41.2 45.1 -4.2 -2.0 -0.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 -0.5 0.3 -0.3 -0.8 39.1 43.5 -0.3 0.8 2.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 -1.2 -0.6 -2.0 -1.0 36.3 42.4 -0.9 0.6 2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 -0.6 0.7 2.3 -0.5 44.3 47.0 0.1 1.0 3.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -6.4 -5.7 -1.4 -0.7 36.8 44.0 -6.7 -4.2 -2.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 0.0 0.7 0.4 -0.9 37.0 43.1 0.6 1.2 3.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 -0.5 0.2 -0.7 -0.8 35.7 43.5 -0.4 1.1 2.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 -0.5 0.3 -0.7 -1.0 38.4 42.3 -0.5 1.2 2.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 -1.2 -1.2 -0.9 -1.0 37.2 41.5 -1.5 0.7 1.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 -0.6 0.0 -1.4 -1.1 34.3 40.3 0.0 1.0 2.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 0.1 0.0 0.8 -0.6 38.0 45.0 -0.1 2.2 3.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 2.1 1.6 0.5 -0.6 40.4 45.6 1.2 1.7 2.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 0.0 0.8 -1.2 -1.1 36.0 41.5 0.6 1.6 3.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 1.9 0.8 2.3 -0.3 45.6 49.2 -0.1 1.1 3.4 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 -2.0 -0.9 -1.0 -0.7 35.6 43.5 -1.1 -0.2 0.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 1.7 0.6 2.3 -0.5 41.9 46.2 0.2 0.8 3.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -5.1 -4.8 -2.4 -0.5 36.0 45.7 -5.1 -2.6 -1.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 -0.3 -0.2 1.5 -0.9 36.2 42.9 -0.2 0.7 2.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 -0.8 0.2 2.3 -0.4 44.2 48.3 -0.3 0.6 3.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 1.5 0.1 2.0 -0.6 39.9 45.4 -0.5 0.6 2.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 -0.8 0.0 0.5 -0.7 37.1 43.6 -0.3 0.8 2.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 -0.1 0.5 1.0 -0.7 38.8 45.1 0.3 0.9 3.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 -0.6 -0.6 -1.1 -1.1 32.6 39.8 -0.6 1.2 2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 -0.6 -0.2 1.6 -0.8 38.7 44.5 -0.7 1.3 2.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 1.0 0.3 -0.2 -0.7 39.7 44.5 -0.4 0.7 1.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 -3.8 -3.2 -1.5 -0.6 35.7 44.2 -3.6 -1.7 -0.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 2.4 0.5 2.4 -0.6 41.8 45.2 0.2 1.4 3.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------