***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2015.-15.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 73 27 0 100 0.6 0.4 2.1 -2.3 18.9 25.1 1.7 3.0 4.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 0.6 0.2 2.3 -1.8 24.5 29.5 1.0 2.6 3.7 30 Becej 27400G00 76 24 0 100 2.3 2.5 2.3 -2.0 22.6 26.8 3.2 4.1 5.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 78 22 0 100 -3.2 -2.9 0.1 -1.7 25.2 28.5 -1.9 -0.8 0.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 77 23 0 100 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 -1.9 24.6 27.7 0.1 1.2 3.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 -1.0 -1.4 -1.3 -1.7 25.7 29.5 -0.8 1.5 3.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 75 25 0 100 0.1 -0.2 2.1 -1.9 22.4 27.9 1.0 2.2 3.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 -4.7 -4.5 -0.9 -1.6 25.9 30.6 -4.0 -2.4 -1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 77 23 0 100 0.2 -0.1 0.6 -2.0 22.8 26.8 1.1 2.8 3.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -1.8 23.9 29.0 0.1 1.9 3.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 72 28 0 100 -0.5 -0.5 -0.2 -1.8 24.1 27.8 0.0 1.9 3.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 -1.3 -1.5 -0.5 -1.9 23.8 27.1 -1.0 1.0 2.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 -1.0 -1.1 -0.9 -2.0 22.5 26.4 -0.3 1.6 2.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 1.2 1.6 1.0 -1.7 25.4 29.2 1.8 2.9 4.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 77 23 0 100 -0.9 -0.9 0.8 -1.6 22.3 28.2 1.2 2.0 2.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 72 28 0 100 0.2 -0.2 -0.7 -1.9 23.4 26.9 0.8 3.0 4.2 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 0.7 0.3 2.1 -1.6 25.4 31.4 1.0 2.3 3.6 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 -0.9 -1.3 -0.7 -1.7 24.5 30.5 -0.9 0.8 1.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 0.8 0.3 2.4 -1.7 25.9 29.7 0.9 2.7 3.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -3.8 -4.3 -1.9 -1.3 30.2 35.5 -3.9 -1.3 -0.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 77 23 0 100 0.4 0.0 1.6 -2.1 22.0 26.4 1.1 2.6 3.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 0.4 0.4 2.3 -1.5 26.5 32.3 0.6 1.8 3.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 0.8 0.6 2.2 -1.7 26.9 29.3 0.8 2.3 3.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 0.2 0.0 0.8 -1.8 25.0 28.6 0.3 1.4 2.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 0.2 0.2 1.1 -1.9 22.8 27.1 0.9 1.9 3.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 -0.7 -1.3 -0.8 -2.0 22.9 26.4 -0.4 2.2 3.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 77 23 0 100 0.8 0.4 1.5 -2.2 19.9 25.5 1.6 2.9 4.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 76 24 0 100 -2.3 -1.3 0.2 -1.7 24.4 28.6 -0.3 0.7 2.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 -1.4 -1.7 -1.1 -1.6 25.7 31.9 -1.1 0.2 1.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 73 27 0 100 0.6 0.1 2.3 -1.9 23.4 27.8 1.5 2.7 4.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------