***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.11.2015.-08.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 100 0 0 100 0.5 0.2 2.1 -4.7 12.9 12.6 2.8 4.2 5.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 100 0 0 100 0.3 0.1 1.7 -4.6 12.6 12.8 2.0 3.0 4.1 30 Becej 27400G00 100 0 0 100 2.7 2.2 2.2 -4.5 11.8 12.2 4.4 4.9 6.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 100 0 0 100 -3.1 -3.0 0.6 -3.4 17.1 17.4 -1.3 0.0 2.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 100 0 0 100 -0.6 -1.2 0.2 -4.6 11.8 11.8 1.8 3.0 4.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 98 2 0 100 -1.2 -1.0 -0.5 -2.9 19.6 18.5 0.7 2.1 3.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 100 0 0 100 0.5 0.4 1.6 -4.6 12.5 13.1 2.0 3.0 4.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 100 0 0 100 -4.4 -4.5 -0.5 -3.7 15.5 15.2 -2.6 -0.7 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 100 0 0 100 0.4 -0.1 0.5 -4.6 8.8 10.0 3.2 4.0 5.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 100 0 0 100 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -4.2 13.0 13.0 2.9 4.2 5.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 100 0 0 100 -0.6 -0.8 0.1 -4.2 13.1 12.6 2.2 3.7 4.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 100 0 0 100 -1.5 -1.6 -0.2 -4.0 13.6 13.3 1.2 2.2 3.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 100 0 0 100 -1.1 -1.2 -0.3 -3.8 12.7 13.7 0.7 2.6 3.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 100 0 0 100 1.4 1.3 1.1 -4.2 11.8 12.5 3.2 4.2 5.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 99 1 0 100 0.3 -0.1 1.9 -3.4 14.5 15.2 2.7 3.9 4.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 100 0 0 100 0.5 0.3 0.0 -3.9 13.4 14.3 2.1 3.9 5.3 30 Nis 06700G01 100 0 0 100 0.7 0.4 1.2 -4.6 12.3 12.9 2.4 3.3 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 100 0 0 100 -0.9 -1.0 -0.7 -4.2 12.9 13.1 0.8 2.5 3.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 100 0 0 100 0.4 0.3 2.0 -4.3 12.9 13.2 2.6 3.5 4.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 100 0 0 100 -4.1 -3.6 -1.1 -2.9 19.8 19.3 -1.6 -0.1 1.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 100 0 0 100 -0.1 -0.4 1.7 -4.6 9.1 10.6 2.5 3.8 4.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 100 0 0 100 0.4 0.2 1.7 -4.5 11.1 12.0 2.0 2.8 4.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 100 0 0 100 0.6 0.2 2.3 -4.0 12.3 13.6 2.5 3.5 4.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 100 0 0 100 0.7 0.1 0.6 -4.5 10.2 10.5 2.2 3.8 4.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 100 0 0 100 0.7 0.2 1.7 -4.3 13.9 14.2 2.5 3.7 5.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 100 0 0 100 -0.7 -1.1 -0.3 -3.7 14.0 15.3 1.1 3.0 4.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 100 0 0 100 -0.1 -0.1 1.6 -4.6 13.6 13.8 1.7 3.3 5.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 100 0 0 100 -1.5 -1.5 0.7 -3.6 15.0 15.5 0.9 1.9 3.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 100 0 0 100 -1.7 -1.7 -0.7 -3.5 16.1 15.8 0.6 1.5 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 100 0 0 100 0.5 0.3 2.0 -4.5 12.0 12.8 2.7 3.5 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------