***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.10.2016.-27.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 45.0 53.4 54.3 117.2 65.4 60.5 29.9 40.8 53.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 45.1 48.9 49.8 116.2 61.6 59.4 28.0 40.5 53.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 54.7 61.2 53.6 115.6 67.1 60.0 32.5 49.6 60.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 57.8 58.9 55.5 105.1 55.5 54.3 42.6 53.7 64.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 52.3 52.0 54.2 109.2 59.0 56.5 31.8 46.9 59.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 48.2 55.1 54.1 113.7 66.8 57.6 32.3 40.5 55.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 43.1 42.0 49.1 117.3 60.3 59.7 24.4 36.8 48.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 83.2 93.3 59.5 114.4 63.3 57.9 45.4 75.2 97.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 48.3 52.9 55.4 111.1 62.0 58.2 26.8 43.5 54.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 51.8 53.6 58.8 111.9 61.8 58.0 34.3 45.8 54.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 51.9 51.3 55.3 112.8 65.6 57.9 27.9 42.9 52.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 56.7 60.6 55.5 115.8 64.9 58.1 29.0 48.5 61.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 34.9 64.7 57.3 115.5 63.8 57.7 36.4 44.2 67.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 73.9 83.1 64.2 113.7 67.8 60.6 54.1 65.3 81.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 47.4 53.4 55.8 104.6 56.7 53.3 24.2 40.5 63.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 51.5 47.8 55.6 116.1 65.0 58.7 33.6 43.0 48.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 45.7 43.2 47.7 112.6 64.4 58.4 28.1 40.3 43.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 60.7 70.2 61.1 112.0 64.3 59.5 45.1 55.1 70.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 50.3 55.5 51.5 116.4 62.7 59.9 31.6 45.8 60.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 80.1 81.7 72.4 113.8 64.7 58.4 43.5 75.2 82.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 50.1 49.8 54.7 113.0 63.6 59.6 31.7 46.1 52.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 47.0 55.3 51.6 112.2 63.5 58.2 34.1 42.5 59.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 51.8 55.9 54.2 116.1 65.4 60.6 36.5 48.5 56.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 74.0 69.3 58.5 113.1 66.9 60.5 38.7 57.7 68.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 46.6 47.6 57.3 110.6 61.0 57.8 27.2 43.4 49.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 52.0 67.3 57.8 116.8 66.9 58.7 32.3 43.5 65.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 46.4 48.6 55.8 115.8 64.0 59.9 33.4 42.6 49.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 49.0 51.9 54.2 107.8 57.4 55.0 25.0 40.5 60.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 89.6 100.9 64.7 111.5 65.8 59.0 71.0 83.6 100.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 45.1 47.9 50.9 116.7 62.3 59.2 26.1 39.4 52.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------