***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.11.2016.-27.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 6.6 5.4 10.1 87.2 52.5 48.8 2.3 4.9 10.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 7.8 7.9 10.0 96.6 61.7 50.6 2.3 5.9 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 8.4 7.6 10.4 91.4 54.3 49.4 2.6 6.3 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 4.7 9.5 10.3 79.3 53.7 45.1 4.0 8.7 14.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 9.0 5.2 10.7 85.0 51.3 45.3 2.3 4.6 12.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 3.3 8.1 9.7 79.0 50.0 44.3 1.4 8.0 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 3.3 10.4 9.8 98.9 62.9 50.3 2.4 6.3 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 6.5 22.2 11.4 88.7 56.3 45.1 5.7 12.4 25.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 8.9 7.9 11.5 89.8 53.0 46.8 0.9 5.6 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.1 9.4 12.0 91.0 56.8 46.1 2.9 8.1 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.9 11.8 10.5 88.9 53.6 45.7 1.6 8.3 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 2.4 6.0 10.2 85.8 53.6 45.0 2.2 5.6 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 2.0 4.6 10.5 85.3 51.4 45.2 2.4 4.4 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 6.8 19.7 13.0 98.7 63.6 51.4 5.3 12.7 20.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.5 5.5 10.2 75.3 52.8 45.4 2.1 4.8 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 2.6 5.9 10.4 87.2 52.2 45.8 0.8 5.5 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.9 13.3 10.0 98.7 63.8 51.6 2.2 7.5 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 5.2 14.3 12.9 96.1 59.9 47.9 5.1 10.9 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 9.9 11.9 10.2 96.8 59.9 51.1 3.4 7.8 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 5.6 18.3 15.1 96.9 60.0 47.9 3.8 11.9 24.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.6 7.3 10.8 88.6 50.1 48.3 2.6 7.3 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 13.8 11.5 10.6 97.4 62.5 52.5 6.1 10.3 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 10.2 10.1 10.8 98.5 59.3 52.1 4.5 8.5 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 12.8 16.1 12.0 95.4 58.3 49.2 3.5 8.9 17.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 3.4 6.1 10.8 82.0 49.6 46.5 2.1 6.2 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 2.8 6.0 10.3 84.0 52.7 45.6 2.7 5.7 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 8.7 6.9 10.5 86.7 52.8 47.9 2.0 6.4 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.3 5.1 9.9 78.2 52.6 45.2 1.6 4.6 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 8.3 20.9 13.7 97.7 58.3 47.8 7.0 16.2 28.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 8.2 8.4 9.9 93.5 58.2 49.4 2.3 6.2 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------