***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.11.2016.-20.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 12.2 9.4 12.0 100.0 54.1 50.3 5.7 9.1 11.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 9.9 9.3 11.5 105.8 60.6 51.6 2.5 6.3 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 14.7 10.0 12.2 97.6 57.0 50.5 5.5 9.0 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 7.9 15.0 12.5 91.7 50.8 48.3 3.7 15.0 26.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 6.3 13.5 11.8 89.4 51.1 47.5 4.7 12.8 21.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 8.0 16.1 12.1 90.0 48.3 44.0 5.5 17.5 25.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 8.5 7.2 11.2 106.8 58.6 51.6 2.8 5.7 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 8.0 24.4 13.7 99.1 58.9 49.9 5.3 15.9 29.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 5.3 11.2 12.1 87.5 51.4 46.9 6.0 11.0 21.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 5.7 12.4 12.9 89.4 52.5 47.2 5.9 11.8 24.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 19.6 19.7 11.9 93.4 56.4 48.3 5.9 15.6 21.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 10.1 26.4 12.5 100.8 61.1 50.1 2.2 20.4 28.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 7.0 23.1 12.8 96.9 56.7 47.8 7.4 15.6 28.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 8.3 19.9 14.8 90.9 57.0 47.9 7.0 15.1 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 4.1 10.8 14.3 99.6 57.4 49.0 1.9 8.2 21.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 7.4 19.6 11.9 94.6 55.5 47.8 3.9 16.0 21.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.1 11.4 11.5 111.1 64.4 52.8 2.4 7.8 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 6.4 16.9 13.8 87.9 51.8 46.2 5.8 13.4 26.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 11.7 12.3 11.9 104.4 61.5 51.2 4.6 7.6 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 7.7 26.6 18.3 99.5 60.1 49.3 5.9 17.5 30.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 5.4 12.5 11.9 91.9 55.0 49.3 4.3 11.8 17.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 10.3 11.8 12.4 108.9 65.4 51.5 3.7 7.1 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.5 10.3 12.8 101.9 61.5 51.2 3.5 8.9 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 5.4 13.9 13.2 88.5 54.4 47.1 4.2 11.9 21.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 14.0 11.5 12.7 96.3 52.7 50.4 3.3 10.6 19.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 7.0 20.6 14.1 107.7 56.4 49.5 10.1 14.6 25.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 10.8 10.2 12.3 100.3 54.3 50.7 4.4 7.5 18.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 4.5 10.0 12.5 93.5 52.8 48.0 2.4 9.0 20.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 13.5 29.7 15.4 91.4 55.3 47.0 7.1 27.4 39.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 10.9 9.8 11.7 103.6 58.2 51.3 2.8 6.5 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------